Georgia Agrees to European-Brokered Ceasefire [civil.ge]

Georgia Agrees to European-Brokered Ceasefire

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 11 Aug.'08 / 15:27

http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19045

President Saakashvili said on August 11 he had signed a ceasefire deal proposed by senior European envoys.

French and Finnish Foreign Ministers Bernard Kouchner and Alexander Stubb, respectively, met Saakashvili overnight and again early on August 11, before traveling to Moscow.

"We have to convince our Russian friends as we have convinced our Georgian friends here," Kouchner said in a live interview with BBC World from Tbilisi after meeting with President Saakashvili.

When asked what would be his and the Finnish foreign minister's message to Moscow, Kouchner responded: "Peace; stop the bleeding."

"It was the duty of the European Union to stop this bloody killing just at the door of the European Union," the French foreign minister, whose country holds the EU rotating presidency, said.

The Finnish foreign minister, who holds the OSCE rotating chairmanship, was more optimistic "than I was yesterday."

"We need a ceasefire and after that we need withdrawal of troops and after that we can move towards peace negotiations," he told BBC World.

He re-iterated President George W. Bush's call for a return to the status quo ante of August 6.

"We will start with a ceasefire; we will work on the humanitarian aid side, because there are people in need on both sides," Stubb said. He added that only then would it be possible to think about a possible peacekeeping format.

"I can not say that it will be ended today, but I am optimistic that in the near future we will come into solution; whether it happens today, tomorrow or day after tomorrow – I do not think anyone knows at this stage," he said. "We have a good start here in Tbilisi and time to move on to Moscow, let's see what they have to say."

The two foreign ministers are due to visit the Georgian town of Gori, close to the South Ossetian conflict zone. The town has been subject to repeated Russian aerial attacks in the last few days.

Tbilisi bombed

RFE/RL is reporting that the capital Tbilisi is among the targets of some 50 Russian aircraft which have been attacking the republic of Georgia.

Timeline of Overnight Attacks [civil.ge]

Timeline of Overnight Attacks

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 11 Aug.'08 / 12:13

http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19040

An official Georgian government account of Russia’s overnight air strikes across the country.

August 11

07:15 - Senaki airport is bombed by Russian airplanes.
06:10 - Gori tank battalion is bombed. A civilian apartment building nearby has been hit.
05:00 - Shiraki airfield in Dedoplistskaro District on the east of the country is bombed by Russian jets.
04:37 - Civilian radar station in the village of Leninisi in 5 kilometers from downtown Tbilisi targeted in an air strike.
03:05 - Villages of Sharabidzeebi, Kapandichi, Makho near Batumi are bombed by Russian planes. Graveyard and villagers’ backyard have been hit. No casualties reported.
00:30 - Civilian radar station in the village of Shavshvebi west of Gori is bombed by Russian planes.
00:00 - Five wounded policemen transported to Zugdidi hospital from upper Kodori Gorge.

August 10
20:00 - Positional fighting near village of Kvabchara in upper Kodori Gorge.
19:10 - TbilAviaMsheni aviation factory was bombarded by Russian aviation again.
19:05 - Russian aviation dropped bomb on Tbilisi International Airport.
18:00 – The Black Sea town of Anaklia 280 km from Tbilisi, is bombed by Russian airplanes. No casualties reported.

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The West and Russia: the dangers of equivocation

Paul Goble, in his remarkable Window on Eurasia, considers the dangers posed by the mixed signals and equivocation emanating from Western countries in the context of the Russian invasion of Georgia, pointing out that failure of back up words of support with action could have disastrous consequences. Excerpt:

And finally – and this is a danger that cannot be ruled out – such a disorderly recession of Western and especially American power and influence in the region means that the Russians, never all that sophisticated in gauging just where the lines are, may finally cross a red line and provoke an explosion in East-West relations that could rapidly get out of hand.

No one – and I mean no one – would have been happier than the author of these lines if American and Western actions had matched American and Western rhetoric in support of the non-Russian nations who escaped the evil empire 17 years ago, but again no one can be less happy than I that the emerging gap is leading to a disaster for both these nations and the West.

These reflections are prompted not only by a close following the events of the last week in the Caucasus but also by two wise declarations by people who know far better than the West does just how dangerous the situation in Georgia is not only for the people of that region but also for the West and the future of Russia.

The first of these documents is a joint declaration issued by the presidents of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland concerning the Georgian events. Having condemned Russian actions in Georgia, the four ask two pointed questions that should be on the minds of all people of good will everywhere:

First, they ask, “can the current Russian authorities be called adequate strategic partners of the EU; and second “can the family of European democratic countries pursue a mutually beneficial dialogue with a country that uses heavy military armor against an independent country” (www.president.ee/en/duties/press_releases.php?gid=116987).

Noting that the Georgian events represent “a litmus test for the credibility of the EU and NATO to solve the conflict and to prove for all EU and NATO members, aspirant countries and democratic partners that it is worth being members and partners of these organizations,” the four presidents invite other world leaders to join them in this declaration.

The second of these documents is an appeal by Sergei Kovalyev and other leading Russian human rights activists to condemn what Russia is doing in Georgia, to exclude Moscow from the G-8 because of its actions, and to have the UN, OSCE, and PACE impose sanctions against the Russian government (grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Georgia/m.139826.html).

These two documents issued by two brave groups of people who understand first hand just what the Russian state is capable of and how Moscow will inevitably seek to exploit Western weakness and especially Western mistakes merit not only the greatest possible respect but the closest possible attention in Western capitals.

It is, of course, very late for this in the Georgian crisis, but it is not too soon to start thinking carefully about bringing words and actions into line so that the tragedy now visiting the people of the Republic of Georgia will not soon extend to other nations in the region and to the broader world as well.

Declaration of Presidents of Parliaments of the Baltic States

Declaration of Presidents of Parliaments of the Baltic States
10 August 2008

With deep concern and anxiety, we are observing the events in Georgia which at this moment is under intensive attacks by the army of the Russian Federation.

We are calling on the international community to decisively condemn actions of Russia and to promptly take all necessary steps to stop the war and bring the parties to the negotiation table.

Justification of Russia’s actions in Georgia by the need to protect its citizens is unacceptable. Alleged reasons for taking up a war against Georgia raise concerns about the future in every state with Russian citizens living on its territory.

We are concerned and disappointed with the actions and behaviour of Russia, as an important actor in the politics of the region and the whole world, which will inevitably have effect on further bilateral and multilateral relations with this country. Russia's military aggression against another sovereign state and actions contradicting the statements of its leaders raise serious doubts about the reliability and consistency of Russia as a partner.

Furthermore, we are convinced that the response of the international community to Russia’s aggression against Georgia is at the same time a test for Euro-Atlantic security institutions of their reliability and solidarity. Therefore we are calling on our governments to discuss, in cooperation with NATO and EU partners, measures to prevent similar actions in future. NATO and the EU must assume responsibility for the security and stability of their partners to demonstrate Russia’s leadership it cannot do whatever it wants with its neighbours that share the values and principles of the Euro-Atlantic community.

Russia's aggression against Georgia must be stopped, with the help of coordinated actions of the international community, immediately before all Georgian infrastructure and economy is destroyed which would bring about humanitarian catastrophe with long-term consequences in the entire region.

Ene Ergma, President of the Riigikogu of Estonia
Gundars Daudze, President of the Saeima of Latvia
Česlovas Juršėnas, President of the Seimas of Lithuania

U.S. Warns Russia over Georgia

 

Via BBC:

The US has strongly criticised Russian military action against Georgia, in the bitter conflict over South Ossetia.

In a telephone call to Georgia's leader Mikhail Saakashvili, the US Vice President, Dick Cheney, said Russian aggression "must not go unanswered".

- - - -

The BBC's Justin Webb in Washington says Dick Cheney's telephone call appears to have been an effort to send a message not just of solidarity but also of readiness for action.

Mr Cheney said the continuation of violence against Georgia would have serious consequences for Russia's relations with the US, as well as the international community.

Sweden evokes Hitler in condemning Russian assault

 

Via AFP:

Sweden has evoked the memory of Adolf Hitler in condemning Russia's
attacks on Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia, saying
the protection of Russians there did not justify the assault.

"No state has the right to intervene militarily in the territory of
another state simply because there are individuals there with a passport
issued by that state or who are nationals of the state," said Swedish
Foreign Minister Carl Bildt in a statement.

"Attempts to apply such a doctrine have plunged Europe into war in the
past... And we have reason to remember how Hitler used this very
doctrine little more than half a century ago to undermine and attack
substantial parts of central Europe," Bildt said.

Russia aiming to take over Georgia

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LA540401.htm

Saakashvili said he had spoken to U.S. President George W. Bush who had signalled his "full support".

"He understands that it's not really about Georgia but in a certain sense it's also an aggression against America," he told the paper.

U.S. is flying Georgian troops into battle zone

Via the Times:

US aircraft have started to fly some of Georgia’s 2,000 troops in Iraq back home to join the fight in the breakaway province of South Ossetia, General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq said today.

“The flights are ongoing to redeploy the elements of the Georgian contingent so that they can deal with the security issues in their country,” General Petraeus told The Times in an interview at his office inside Baghdad’s Green Zone.

He said measures were already in place to mitigate the impact on operations in Iraq of the sudden departure of the soldiers.

“We can accommodate that. Obviously it was not expected but it is something, the effects of which we can certainly mitigate.”

Georgia pulls out of S. Ossetia and calls ceasefire

Via BBC:

Georgia has ordered its forces to cease fire, and offered to start talks with Russia over an end to hostilities in South Ossetia, Georgian officials say.

Earlier Georgia said its troops had pulled out of the breakaway region and that Russian forces were in control of its capital, Tskhinvali.

Thousands of civilians have fled the area, following heavy fighting that broke out on Thursday night.

The US has described Russia's actions as "dangerous and disproportionate".

US Deputy National Security Adviser James Jeffrey warned that if the Russian escalation continued, it would have a "significant" long-term impact on relations between Moscow and Washington.

Second Front in Abkhazia

Via Postimees: Georgian military experts believe that the centre of gravity of Russian military operations may move to Abkhazia, where all day Saturday there were exchanges of fire and airstrikes on Georgian villages in the Kodori Gorge.

In the afternoon there were reports of a possible Russian intention to begin a naval blockade of Georgia. There were also reports that Turkish warships have taken up positions near Batumi.

Georgia has temporarily withdrawn from Tskhinvali, but remains in S. Ossetia

Georgian forces have temporarily withdrawn from Tskhinvali, but remain in South Ossetia, according to a statement by the Georgian Reintegration Minister, reported by Sky News.

Tbilisi International Airport Bombed

The Georgian interior ministry says that Russian aircraft dropped three bombs on Tbilisi International Airport at around 5.30 am Moscow time, according to interior ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili, reported by Reuters via gazeta.ru. The explosions were heard by the Reuters correspondent. According to Mr. Utiashvili, Russian forces were waiting for daybreak in order to begin "active military operations" against Georgia.

Earlier there were reports that Russia had bombed a military airfield near Tbilisi International Airport.

Join statement by Presidents of Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Joint statement on Georgia-Russia War by Presidents of Poland, Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania
August 9, 2008

Georgia Update, a Service of the Government of Georgia

We, the leaders of the former captive nations from Eastern Europe and current members of the European Union and NATO– Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – are extremely concerned about the actions of the Russian Federation against Georgia.

We strongly condemn the actions by the Russian military forces against the sovereign and independent country of Georgia.

Following the unilateral military actions of the Russian military forces, we will use all means available to us as Presidents to ensure that aggression against a small country in Europe will not be passed over in silence or with meaningless statements equating the victims with the victimizers. To this end we intend to urge our governments to take the following positions in discussions and to raise these concerns in the European Union and the North Atlantic Council:

Can the current Russian authorities be called adequate strategic partners of the EU;
Can the family of European democratic countries pursue a mutually beneficial dialogue with a country that uses heavy military armour against an independent country;
It is pointlessness to continue a “visa facilitation” program with a country that does not meet even the minimal requirements set by the EU and which uses visa facilitation to issue Russian Federation passports to foreigners and then abuses this EU given privilege to claim intervention rights such as "we are protecting Russian citizens" in South Ossetia.
The actions of the Russian Federation in Georgia should influence the talks with the Russian Federation, including negotiations on the new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.
We underline the obvious bankruptcy of Russian “peacekeeping operations” in its immediate neighbourhood. The Russian Federation has overstepped a red-line in keeping the peace and stability in the conflict zone and in protecting Russian citizens outside its own borders.

The EU and NATO must take the initiative and stand-up against the spread of imperialist and revisionist policy in the East of Europe. New international peacekeeping forces should be created as the current setting proved to be ineffective.

We regret that not granting of the NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia was seen as a green light for agression in the region.

We believe that the EU and NATO as the key organizations for European and Transatlantic stability and security should play a leading and crucial role in securing freedom, security and prosperity of countries not only in the EU but also in the neighboring European area.

It a litmus-test for the credibility of the EU and NATO to solve the conflict in its immediate neighborhood and to prove for all EU and NATO members, aspirant countries and democratic partners that it is worth being members and partners of these organizations.

This Declaration is open for the accession by the leaders of other democratic countries.

President of the Republic of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves
President of the Republic of Latvia Valdis Zatlers
President of the Republic of Lithuania Valdas Adamkus
President of the Republic of Poland Lech Kaczyński

Russia increases air raids on Georgia

The Telegraph, on Russia's invasion of Georgia:

The two countries are close to full scale war after Russian tanks invaded the tiny territory in response to Georgian attacks on Moscow-backed separatists.

-----

Foreign journalists witnessed an air attack on the town of Gori early on Saturday morning and the Georgian government claimed Russian bombers had "completely devastated" the Black Sea port of Poti - a key transit route near a major gas pipeline.

Last night Russia had reportedly started to bomb civil and economic infrastructure, including the Black Sea port of Poti and the military base at Senaki. Between 8 and 11 Russian jets reportedly hit container tanks and a shipbuilding plant at the port.

Russia's military plans for Europe

As federal Russian forces widen their assault on Georgia, now extending it to aerial attacks on targets and infrastructure throughout the country, the information war intensifies. Russia-based cyber raids on official Georgian sites continue: the first of these took place before the Russian invasion, on July 22, when the Georgian President’s website was subjected to a DDos attack. Since August 8, Russian hackers have been concentrating their efforts not only on Georgian government sites, but also on Georgia-based sources of news and information, such as the independent Civil Georgia and Rustavi-2 sites. The message is at last plain for all the world to see – Russia’s intention is to destroy the Georgian state, and to depose its President. The South Ossetian enclave is being utilized to the last as a bridge by means of which heavy armour can be introduced to the republic’s territory, as bombing of civilian targets increases from the air.

Predictably, in some Western countries the voices of people who would prefer appeasement of Russia are being raised. But the difficulty is that, whether it wants to or not, the West can't stand aside now. The trap that has been set for Georgia is also set for the rest of Europe – for Russia intends to embroil not only the Caucasus but the whole of the continent of Europe in a conflict that could decide the fate of this part of the world for many years to come, and by achieving a nexus of interests related to oil and energy supply, military security and political influence It has already succeeded quite a long way in doing this.

In the Cold War, it was possible for East and West to hold apart in an armed separation that held the peace. We are now in a different era. If there is total war between Georgia and Russia – and the possibility of this now looks real – it will be the worst crisis in Europe since the Second World War, because it will result in a confrontation between Russia and the West –including the United States – of a kind that has not been seen before. As some observers have already pointed out, it will be far worse than the Balkan wars in the former Yugoslavia, which were strictly localized.

The cyber attacks which Russia is increasingly using as a weapon to extend its reach are symptomatic, in that they do not only affect the security of states like Estonia, Lithuania and Georgia. Other countries, including those of “old Europe”, are also now exposed. For example, an official British cabinet report has just pointed out that cyber attacks from Russia and China have become one of the greatest threats to Britain’s national security. If we add in the apparent insouciance with which Russian special services are prepared to carry out operations on foreign soil, including acts of extreme violence which endanger the civilian population, as in the Litvinenko affair, and the recent announcement that Russia is to create  five or six new groups of aircraft carrier forces in the Northern and Pacific Ocean Fleets, we have a picture of a Russia that is moving step by step towards a military showdown with the West, and above all with the United States.

"The War in Ossetia"

Not much doubt in Russian media that a war is underway. "Russia has joined the war" reads Gazeta.ru's headline, in a special section of the online paper called "The War in Ossetia".

Russia's 58th army shelling Georgian positions

Lenta.ru reports that two tank columns from the 58th army have begun shelling Georgian positions near the town of Tskhinvali.

Russia has invaded Georgia

Via CNN:

Georgia's president said Friday that his country is under attack by Russian tanks and warplanes, and he accused Russia of targeting civilians as tensions over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia appeared to boil over into full-blown conflict.

---

"This is the worst nightmare one can encounter," he said.

Asked whether Georgia and Russia were now at war, he said, "My country is in self-defense against Russian aggression. Russian troops invaded Georgia."

"State of War" between Tbilisi and Moscow

Georgian forces have downed two Russian military jets, Civil Georgia reports.

Also: a Russian warplane has dropped two bombs on the Vaziani military base outside Tbilisi, the Georgian Interior Ministry said.

According to a Sky News report,

Russia has sent 150 tanks and armoured vehicles into [South Ossetia] as what started as a regional conflict between Georgia and separatists threatens to build into all-out war.

Russia claims that South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali has been "almost completely destroyed", while President Dmitry Medvedev has vowed to punish the Georgians if they hurt the province's people.

Georgia opens evacuation corridor

Via RFE/RL(Reuters).

Most of S. Ossetia now under Georgia's control

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 8 Aug.'08 / 11:38

President Saakashvili said he had announced a general mobilization of reserve troops amid “large-scale military aggression” by Russia.

In a live televised address on August 8, Saakashvili said Georgian government troops had gone “on the offensive” after South Ossetian militias responded to his peace initiative on August 7 by shelling Georgian villages.

As a result, he said, Georgian forces now controlled “most of South Ossetia.”

He said the breakaway region’s districts of Znauri, Tsinagari, as well as the villages of Dmenisi, Gromi, and Khetagurovo, were “already liberated” by Georgian forces.

“A large part of Tskhinvali is now liberated and fighting is ongoing in the center of Tskhinvali,” he added.
He also said that Georgia had come under aerial attack from Russian warplanes on August 8, which was an obvious sign of “large-scale military aggression” against Georgia.

The Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs said that three SU-24 Fencer attack aircraft had breeched Georgian airspace on August 8, and one of them had dropped two bombs close to a police station in Kareli, slightly injuring several people.

“Immediately stop the bombing of Georgian towns,” Saakashvili told Russia. “Georgia did not start this confrontation and Georgia will not give up its territories; Georgia will not say no to its freedom… We have already mobilized tens of thousands of reserve troops. Mobilization is ongoing.”

“Hundreds of thousands of Georgians should stand together and save Georgia,” he added.

Russia preparing military aggression against Georgia

Moscow is now threatening Georgia with military aggression. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, speaking in Beijing, is said by BBC World Service (The World Today, 8am) to have promised direct action. gazeta.ru reports that the South Ossetia regime's security council has requested Russian military aid "within the hour". Russian air strikes have already taken place against targets on Georgian territory outside the conflict zone.

Meanwhile, Georgia's Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze has issued a statement in which he defends the use of "peace enforcement measures" to resolve the situation (via Civil Georgia):

“Government troops were forced to launch measures for the establishment of peace in the region after separatist forces responded to President Saakashvili’s peace initiatives by shelling Georgian villages,” PM Gurgenidze said.

“Government forces are now undertaking measures to secure the restoration and establishment of a guaranteed peaceful situation, wherein there will be no longer a threat to the population of that region.”

“These measures are ongoing now and will continue until we reach this goal,” he added.

PM Gurgenidze, however, also said that Tbilisi was willing to engage in dialogue at any time to resolve the conflict.

He said that there were casualties, both dead and wounded, but did not give details. He said that the Interior Ministry planned to provide hourly updates for the press.

PM Gurgenidze said that infiltration of “so-called volunteers” into South Ossetia from the Russian Federation via Roki Tunnel had been observed overnight on August 8.

“We are also undertaking measures to prevent further massive infiltration of those volunteers, because they are one of the major sources of destabilization,” he said.

He also called on the population to remain calm. “Today is a usual working day,” the PM said.

The prime minister said that the government had already allocated an initial GEL 50 million for humanitarian and infrastructure rehabilitation, which, he said, would be needed “as soon as peace is established.”

Heavy fighting “in and around Tskhinvali” was reported as PM Gurgenidze was speaking, as well as all night.

The South Ossetia side said there were casualties on its side, mainly among civilians, but no exact numbers were reported. Some sources said at least 15 people were killed in Tskhinvali, but others suggested more comprehensive information would reveal a higher figure.

Russian peacekeeping forces reported that “all type of heavy weaponry” was used by both sides during the overnight fighting. Georgian warplanes were also seen over the conflict zone at dawn. The Russian peacekeepers reported that five Georgian SU-25 Frogfoot attack aircraft attacked South Ossetian military positions in the village of Kverneti.

Itar-Tass news agency reported that Georgian warplanes also carried out strikes on South Ossetian positions in Java in the north of the region, which is outside the formal area of the conflict zone – a 15-kilometer radios around Tskhinvali.

“Heavy fighting in and around Tskhinvali is ongoing,” the South Ossetian Press and Information Committee reported. “The people of South Ossetia request the president and the leadership of the Russian Federation to help and to undertake measures to protect its citizens in South Ossetia.”

Georgia restoring constitutional order in S. Ossetia

After a Georgian defence ministry announcement that the government has decided to restore constitutional order in its secessionist province of South Ossetia, Georgian forces have resumed shelling of separatist troops, and are carrying out aerial strikes against the rebels.

Civil Georgia reports that

The Georgian troops have “neutralized the separatist forces’ firing positions” in Znauri, a district center in the west from Tskhinvali, Shota Utiashvili, the Interior Ministry spokesman, told Civil.Ge at 5:40am local time on August 8.

  

There are also reports that Russian military jets have been bombing Georgian territory near South Ossetia.

Serbian Days

At Jihad Watch, the issue of the site's evident pro-Serbian bias is becoming an eminent topic of discussion. The discussion can also be followed at LGF.

Georgia to cease fire

After "large scale battles" were reported to have taken place between Georgian government forces and Moscow-backed South Ossetian separatists, Georgia has declared a unilateral cease fire.

Georgia to Cease Fire
Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 7 Aug.'08 / 18:46


Georgia has decided to “unilaterally cease fire” in a sign of its willingness to defuse tensions, Temur Iakobashvili, the Georgian state minister for reintegration, said at a press conference in Tbilisi at 6:40pm local time.

“We have decided not to return fire for a certain period of time. This move is yet another attempt by us to convince the separatists that a military confrontation is pointless,” Iakobashvili said. “Military confrontation may lead to many casualties, so we are ready to hold talks and defuse tensions.”

“We are unilaterally ceasing fire, but we are doing it not because we are afraid of anyone, but because we want peace. We hope that this message will be properly received by them [the South Ossetian side], and that they will stop shelling our civilian population.”

Iakobashvili also said that the decision was taken by the Georgian side after he had met Marat Kulakhmetov, the commander of the Joint Peacekeeping Forces, in Tskhinvali this evening.

Iakobashvili said that he had been unable to get in touch with Boris Chochiev, the chief South Ossetian negotiator. “He is not responding,” Iakobashvili said. “And Kokoity [the South Ossetian secessionist leader] is not in Tskhinvali.”

Jamestown's Pavel Felgenhauer has some further analysis here.

The Jihad link

Radio Free Europe's Liz Fuller examines the re-introduction of conscription of young Chechen men into the Russian armed forces, which resumes this autumn after a gap of several years. Excerpt:

...in line with a directive issued by Chechen Republic head Ramzan Kadyrov, not only young men born in 1990 will be liable for conscription this year, but all those born between 1981 and 1990, regnum.ru reported on April 3.

That assertion raises several questions: is Kadyrov seeking to round up the entire male population between 17 and 28 and ship them out of Chechnya to serve elsewhere in Russia in order to deprive the North Caucasus resistance of potential recruits? Kadyrov has on several occasions in recent months lambasted local officials for failing to halt the exodus of young men who leave home to fight under the banner of self-proclaimed imam of the North Caucasus Doku Umarov. Indeed, how many of the pool of 70,000 hypothetical draftees have jumped the gun and already joined the resistance ranks? And could the harsh conditions of army service outside Chechnya, including the hazing for which the Russian armed forces are notorious, impel more young men to make that choice?

Oligarchs in Britain

In the context of the news that London is now thought to be home to around 300,000 Russians, the majority of whom are members of the country's pro-Putin/Medvedev elite, the Telegraph looks at the history of the rise of the "oligarchs", the extremely rich state-sponsored ex-communists who oose an increasing threat to the UK's economic stability:

The story of how the oligarchs made their money is hard to credit.

As former communists, many were permitted during Perestroika to set up co-operatives, which later became lucrative trading businesses.

In 1992 the government established a mass privatisation in which workers were given shares in their businesses and vouchers that enabled them to be bought and sold.

Unaccustomed to the ways of capitalism and enduring a difficult economic period, many were easily encouraged by the oligarchs to sell their vouchers for what now appear ludicrously small sums.

According to one estimate, the 140m vouchers issued by 1994 valued the entire Russian industrial sector at just $12bn. The folly was compounded in 1995 when Yeltsin's government turned to the newly enriched and emboldened oligarchs for loans.

When the government defaulted, they cleaned up again, seizing mineral and oil assets.

It left them in a strong position to benefit from the recent oil and commodity boom.

And, the paper adds:

Previously, Russian oligarchs were a phenomenon to be admired (or despised, according to taste), but one that could be dismissed as an entertaining foreign curiosity.

With their intertwining links and increasing influence on the London stock market and corporate Britain, that is no longer the case.

Moscow's War Scare

Via Eurasia Daily Monitor (excerpt):

Apart from the usual goal of military intimidation, Moscow has some novel motives this year to escalate tension to an unprecedented level. First and foremost, it wants to demonstrate that NATO would court danger and risk a breakdown in relations with Russia, if the Alliance approves a membership action plan for Georgia at one of the upcoming NATO meetings (December 2008, April 2009). Germany’s insistence at the April 2008 NATO summit, that the unresolved secessionist conflicts disqualify Georgia from a membership action plan, has emboldened Moscow to demonstrate ever more aggressively that the conflicts are indeed unresolved.

Second, by stoking tensions in South Ossetia and anxiety in European institutions, Moscow seeks to force Georgia to return to negotiations in the Joint Control Commission (JCC), which Georgia quit in March of this year. With its grotesquely unbalanced composition (Georgia, Russia, South Ossetia, and Russia’s North Ossetia, plus the OSCE as a passive observer), the JCC had only helped perpetuate the “frozen” conflict, i.e., Moscow-controlled instability.

During the July 31-August 2 incidents, Russia’s special envoy on the South Ossetia conflict and chief delegate to the JCC, Ambassador Yuriy Popov, was visiting Georgia in attempt to resurrect the JCC. Both Popov and a Ministry of Foreign Affairs communiqué from Moscow argued that the continuing incidents showed the urgent need for resuming negotiations in the JCC. The Russian MFA cited the incidents in claiming that Russia’s “peacekeepers” were indispensable and demanding that Georgia sign a “guaranteed” non-use-of-force agreement with South Ossetia, as well as with Abkhazia (Interfax, July 31, August 1, 2). This is unacceptable to Tbilisi because it would in effect recognize South Ossetia and would retain Russia’s “peacekeeping” troops as “guarantors.”

Moscow’s third, novel reason for orchestrating the incidents is to rebuff the United States, as part of a general propaganda offensive against a Washington perceived to be weak. For the first time in memory, Moscow licensed the South Ossetian leaders in their statements to attack the United States and, personally, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who had visited Georgia in July (South Ossetian Press and Information Committee, Itar-Tass, July 31-August 2).

Moscow threatening "all-out war" with Georgia

Moscow-backed South Ossetian separatists under their leader Eduard Kokoity continue to try to force Georgia into armed conflict. After the skirmishes on Friday and Saturday, when six people were killed, the South Ossetian authorities are conducting mass evacuations of women and children to Russia's North Ossetia. Now the Kremlin is threatening "all out war", AP reports.

A Victim of the State

In the aftermath of the assassination in London of the British citizen Alexander Litvinenko, the claims that the British television presenter Jill Dando was in fact killed by a Serbian hitman begin to make more sense - particularly in view of yesterday's acquittal of Barry George, and the upcoming war crimes trial of Radovan Karadzic at the Hague. In 2001 the Independent newspaper published an article about the Serbian connection to the case. Excerpt:

Michael Mansfield, QC, who is defending the man accused of her murder, Barry George, told the Old Bailey that there was evidence to suggest that Miss Dando, who was shot dead on the doorstep of her home in south-west London on 26 April 1999, had been a victim of state terrorism. He argued that Ms Dando may have become a target after she presented a television appeal for aid for Kosovan refugees and then days later Nato fired a cruise missile at a television station owned by a relative of Slobodan Milosevic, killing 17 people. Mr Mansfield read out an intelligence report received at the National Criminal Intelligence Service and passed to officers investigating Ms Dando's shooting.

It stated: "Jill Dando was the subject of an execution by a Yugoslavian hitman. Intelligence sources suggest that as a result of the bombing of a TV station run by the daughters of Milosevic, a contract was put out on the head of the BBC, John Birt.

"As a result of him receiving threatening letters his security was stepped up - after this the target was changed to Jill Dando."

Islamism - the Moscow version? - 2

The second part of the interview with Movladi Udugov is here, though in a somewhat cut-down version of the original Russian one.

Islamism - the Moscow version?

Prague Watchdog has published the first part of an interview with "Caucasus Emirate" leader Movladi Udugov - an enigmatic figure whom some observers believe to be associated with Moscow and the Kremlin.

Seven Years on the Front Line

Via kasparov.ru, a remarkable and highly intelligent documentary film (with English subtitles) about the last few years in the life of Anna Politkovskaya. The director is Masha Novikova, and the film features many sequences in which Politkovskaya herself explains the nature of her work as a journalist who was really a soldier in the struggle for truth and civil society in Russia. Although it was the focus of her activity, Chechnya was only one of the elements in the central task she aspired to: the bringing of truth, reconciliation and justice to Russian society as a whole. As one participant in the film points out, it  was her willingness to name culprits that led to her death by assassination.

The film contains many harrowing scenes of violence and brutality, together with interviews with victims and their relatives, and documents some of the worst of the crimes committed by Russian federal forces and their commanders during the second Chechen war. What it underlines most of all, however, is the fact that in some ways Politkovskaya's aims have been fulfilled, at least in terms of international comprehension: for the evidence of the crimes that were sanctioned and authorized by Russia's leaders is now so detailed and so extensive that those leaders cannot present themselves to the civilized world and expect to be received as part of it. They are international pariahs. 

In Denial

In the wake of several crushing defeats at the polls, and a movement against Labour that's reminiscent of the turning of the electorate against the Conservatives in the years immediately before 1997, Britain's Prime Minister talks of "getting on with the job". His often-repeated promise to "listen and learn" sounds distinctly hollow, as his real purpose seems to be to ignore the growing chorus of voices urging him to call a general election.

Antidemocracy

Via RFE/RL (Robert Coalson):

Moscow has repeatedly defended its antidemocratic domestic policies by arguing Russia has its own "path to democracy," and that all nations must build democracies that are unique to their cultural heritages.

While some observers expected this sort of divisiveness to be toned down after Dmitry Medvedev -- who rarely misses a chance to point out that he is a lawyer by training -- became president, it has in fact been ramped up in recent weeks. Moscow has renewed its calls for phasing out The Hague war crimes tribunal, saying it is fatally "biased."

Perhaps most importantly, the quasi-official Russian Orthodox Church last month adopted its Basic Principles of the Russian Church on Human Dignity, Freedom, and Rights. The document, which was partially drafted by Kremlin insider and Eurasianist ideologue Aleksandr Dugin, called for a "reexamination" of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights. It says Western notions of human rights do not apply to Russia and should be replaced by Orthodox principles. It also asserts that civilizations "should not impose their lifestyle patterns on other civilizations." The document clearly prioritizes the rights of society over the rights of individuals.

A "Difficult" Situation

Radio Free Europe notes that after the arrest of Radovan Karadzic, Russia called for the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to cease its activities. An Academy of Sciences representative, Artyem Ulunyan, is interviewed on his view of the matter:

RFE/RL: What's the reasoning behind Russia calling for the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia to cease its activities?

Artyem Ulunyan: Russia doesn't want it to be possible for former high officials to be tried in foreign or international courts that are not under Russian control.

RFE/RL: But isn't the ICTY only concerned with crimes committed in the former Yugoslavia?

Ulunyan: What we seem to be talking about here is a precedent for the tribunal to be used by organizations not under its control. Russia most likely sees this as dangerous.

RFE/RL: What will Russia's position be regarding the trial of Radovan Karadzic?

Ulunyan: I think this will be multifaceted. On the official level, there won't be any actions or announcements. But at the semiofficial level, Russia's dissatisfaction will be made clear. Pro-Kremlin youth organizations will be mobilized. Sections of the public will be fed propaganda arguing that Karadzic himself was not right, but his ideas were.

Read the whole thing here.

Disappearing Act

At Prague Watchdog, Memorial representative Usam Baysayev considers the question of the "vanished" grave.

Saint Stalin

Via the Telegraph:

The Communist party in St Petersburg has petitioned the Orthodox Church to canonise Josef Stalin if he wins a television poll to nominate the greatest Russian in history.

Stalin last week surrendered a narrow lead to Nicholas II in the contest, which is based on the BBC's Great Britons series.

But with a result not expected until the end of the year, the country's Communists are convinced that Stalin will still emerge the victor.

While the poll, conducted by the state run Rossiya channel, has been criticised for allowing multiple voting, there is little doubt that Stalin has undergone a remarkable renaissance in recent years.

Opinion polls regularly name him Russia's greatest post-revolution leader after Vladimir Putin, the prime minister.

Karadzic arrested

Radovan Karadzic has been arrested in Serbia.

Via BBC:

Richard Holbrooke, the US diplomat who brokered the Dayton Peace Accord for Bosnia in 1995, told the BBC that "a major, major thug has been removed from the public scene".

"One of the worst men in the world, the Osama Bin Laden of Europe, has finally been captured," Mr Holbrooke told BBC World News America.

The End of the Post-Cold War Era

In the Washington Times, CSIS New European Democracies director Janusz Bugajski discusses Mr Medvedev's "big Europe". Excerpt:

In reality, it is not Atlanticism that is effectively over but the post-Cold War era as the West and Russia are embroiled in a new strategic confrontation. Russia is reasserting its global reach by opposing further expansion of the Euro-Atlantic zone and reversing the United States' global role. The Kremlin believes the U.S. has passed its zenith as a global power and Pax Americana is crumbling. This provides an invaluable opportunity for a resurgent Russia to extend its interests in nearby regions, particularly throughout the wider Europe.

A Problem of Satire

This is not really satire, for it's likely to be interpreted literally. What it mostly does is raise more questions about a still-enigmatic presidential candidate.

EU Parliament's President will not attend Beijing opening

Via the International Campaign for Tibet:

In a new resolution on China and Tibet adopted on the 10 July, European Parliament remains concerned about human rights abuses in China and Tibet. Contrary to the French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pöttering, announced that he will not be attending the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing, due to the lack of progress in talks between Chinese authorities and representatives of the Dalai Lama.

For the second time since the uprising of the Tibetan plateau on the 10 March, the European Parliament has adopted a resolution that 'deplores the fact that China's human rights record remains a matter for concern owing to widespread and systematic human rights abuses.'

Russia supports Mugabe against people of Zimbabwe

Via Voice of America:

The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, said China and Russia stood with President Robert Mugabe and "against the people of Zimbabwe".

UK denounces Russia spy charge

Via CNN:

"It's wholly unacceptable to make such allegations against any named individuals and by definition we are not going to comment on the truth of them," said a UK Foreign Office spokeswoman, who declined to be named.

The spokeswoman declined to discuss the matter further but confirmed that [Christopher] Bowers heads UKTI, which works with British companies overseas and encourages international investment in Britain.

The Darkness

The Spectator has a disturbing lead article on what may lie behind the apparently respectable facade presented by those whose ostensible aim is to promote "British-Russian relations".

Srebrenica

Thirteen years on, Srebrenica relatives bury their dead.

Meanwhile, Russia says the Hague War Crimes Tribunal should be phased out.

Moscow "De-Recognizes" Georgia

Via EDM:

Routine references to Georgia’s territorial integrity have disappeared from official Russian policy statements since early this year. Those references used to be a fixture in Moscow’s statements, even if that integrity was always honored in the breach. Their disappearance is a further indication of Russia’s implicit “de-recognition” of Georgia’s territorial integrity at the level of official rhetoric, on top of the explicit non-recognition on the practical level.

Moscow now seeks to de-legitimize Georgia’s internationally recognized borders by attributing them to decisions by Soviet leaders. In continuation of this argument, the Duma’s International Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachev declared on July 10, “Georgia is a construction that emerged in the totalitarian Soviet Union, a construction whose authorship belongs to the then-dictator Iosif Stalin.” He went on to hint that Moscow was about to open some kind of representation offices in Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Ekho Moskvy, July 10). Kosachev enjoys close relations with the Kremlin. His thesis should be chilling to Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and other ex-Soviet ruled countries, inasmuch as Moscow can use the same argument in trying to de-legitimize their post-1991, internationally recognized borders. (Vladimir Socor)

Russia hostile to U.S. in Georgia mediation move

Via Reuters:

"We don't see any reason for anyone's mediation in settling relations," the agency quoted the unidentified diplomatic source as saying. "We have direct dialogue with Georgia and contacts are continuing," the source said.

Russia admits its air force entered Georgian airspace

Russia says its air force did enter Georgian airspace this week (RFE/RL).

Georgia has recalled its Moscow ambassador.

It's the first such admission by Moscow in at least a decade, as the Russians have always denied that their planes have flown into Georgian airspace in the past.

Iran's nuclear threat to Europe

General Henry A. Obering, who heads the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, says in an interview for Radio Free Europe that he expects Iranian missiles will soon have a range to target all of Europe:

“Iran is obviously investing a lot of money in developing and fielding more and more capable missiles of longer and longer range," Obering said. "It doesn’t make sense to me that they would be making those investments, unless they had a weapons-of-mass-destruction program to match up with that, because that would justify that investment. Without that, only flying a conventional warhead of even a thousand kilograms or whatever the payload size may be, would not make sense.”

Obering also questions why Iran, if it is only concerned about regional threats, is seeking missiles with ranges that would extend well beyond the region.

“When you reach 2,000 kilometers, that is well beyond a range that you would need for a regional conflict with Israel," he said. "Within even 1,300 kilometers, you could reach most of the U.S. bases in the region. So it doesn’t make any sense in a regional context for them to be developing longer and longer range weapons. So I think it adds to the urgency as to why it’s important that we signed the agreement with the Czech Republic ... and that we continue to make progress in the development of these capabilities.”

Russia may block sanctions against Mugabe

Via BBC:

Russia has said it could veto proposed UN sanctions against Zimbabwe's president and his allies, despite agreeing a G8 statement backing them.

Russia has the power to veto any measures at the UN Security Council, which could take a vote this week.

U.S. criticizes Russia over "bellicose rhetoric"

Via BBC:

The United States has criticised what it calls "bellicose rhetoric" from Russia over US plans to develop a missile shield in Europe.

Russia said it would be forced to react with military means if the US went ahead with its plan for a shield based partly in the Czech Republic.

The reaction was "designed to make Europeans nervous about participating" said a Pentagon spokesman.

Chechnya's Turning-Point

In an extended survey of recent Chechen history, Radio Free Europe's Liz Fuller asks What Direction for Chechnya?

Georgian government condemns provocations

Via Civil Georgia:

The Georgian government has condemned recent series of explosions in breakaway Abkhazia, including the latest in the Gali district that killed four people.

“Those acts of violence are in the interests of those forces, which want to prolong presence of illegally deployed Russian military forces in Georgia; of those forces, which are resisting demilitarization and peace in the region and of those forces, which want to derail Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” the Georgian government’s statement released on July 7 reads.

“In order to prevent further escalation in the region, under the condition of withdrawal of the Russian military forces from the Ochamchire and Gali districts, the Georgian government reiterates its readiness to establish there joint [Georgian-Abkhaz] local police force under the international supervision, which will efficiently provide conditions for protection of fundamental rights of the Georgian citizens.”

MI5: Litvinenko murder had backing of Russian state

The BBC reports that a senior Whitehall source has told the BBC Newsnight programme that the murder of Alexander Litvinenko by radioactive poisoning in London was carried out with the backing of the Russian state.

The First Violins

At Russia Profile, Sergei Markedonov discusses the shortcomings of what he calls Russia's "outdated" Chechnya policy in the light of the increasing changes in the nature of the armed resistance to Russian rule there:

Terrorism as a political practice is being “reloaded” in North Caucasus. Now, the main terrorist opponent of the Russian state will be not a defender of “free Ichkeria,” but a participant of the “Caucasian Islamist terrorist international group.” In this sense, Russia’s North Caucasus is recreating the historical experience of the countries of the Islamic Orient. A similar stage of “change of generations” of terrorists and terrorism has already been passed by the states of the Middle East and Northern Africa. While, in the 1960s-1980s, the main subjects of the terrorist struggle were secular ethno-nationalists (Yasser Arafat and the PLO), who used religious values and slogans only as an instrument and for the sake of taking advantage of the religious infrastructure, in the early 1980s, the first violins started to be played by the supporters of “pure Islam” (“Muslim Brothers”, “Islamic Jihad”). Now, after a certain delay, the North Caucasus will go through a similar evolution process.

Of course, it was much longer ago that radical Islam started to be used by the Chechen separatist movement, which had originally started acting under the slogans of secular ethnic nationalism. By the way, the constitution of the first Ichkeria, written in 1991-1994, was copied from the Baltic examples. The leaning toward religion started after Khasavyurt. However, Aslan Maskhadov continued to count primarily on support from Europe and the US, for which (for Britain, in particular) Islamists were not “people that could be dealt with.” Today, the West as a whole is not esteemed by Umarov and his team (which makes anti-American and anti-European statements). The former separatists rest no hopes on the West. Now, they are looking to the East, for the support of their “brothers in faith.”

The Threat to the U.K. - 2

More from the Telegraph, quoting a source in MI5:

"MI5's resources have been stretched to the limit for the past few years. There have been times when there was nothing left in the locker, when all of our assets were being used on one operation.

"At the same time, we have to contend with the very real threat being posed by the Russians. Russia is a country which is under suspicion of committing murder on British streets and it must be assumed that having done it once they will do it again."

The source said MI5 was so stretched that some recent counter-terrorist operations against Muslim extremists had used up its entire surveillance resources, meaning other areas of security and intelligence work had inevitably suffered.

The Threat to the U.K.

The Telegraph notes that Russia is now posing its biggest threat to the security of the United Kingdom since the end of the Cold War:

The revelations that Russia is distracting security services from more pressing threats comes at a sensitive time politically as Gordon Brown prepares to meet President Medvedev for the first time at the G8 summit in Japan.

High on the agenda will be the way Russia's domestic security arm, the FSB, has been raiding the offices of BP's joint venture in Moscow, TNK-BP.

Jonathan Evans, the head of MI5, said last year that "since the end of the Cold War we have seen no decrease in the numbers of undeclared Russian intelligence officers in the UK - at the Russian Embassy and associated organisations conducting covert activity in this country.''

It is estimated there are at least 30 spies based at the Russian embassy in Kensington, west London, controlled by a spymaster known as ''the resident.''

Cyber-attack

Via AP/CNN:

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) -- Unidentified hackers broke into several hundred Lithuanian Web sites over the weekend, plastering them with communist symbols, government officials said Monday.

Lithuanian law prohibits the public display of the Soviet flag, military uniforms and the five-pointed Soviet star.

The hackers posted Soviet symbols -- the hammer and sickle, as well as the five-pointed star -- and scathing messages with profanities on Web sites based in the ex-Soviet nation, officials said.

"More than 300 private and official sites were attacked from so-called proxy servers located in territories east of Lithuania," said Sigitas Jurkevicius, a computer specialist at Lithuania's communications authority.

The Field of Finno-Ugria

Leopoldo writes, on events at Khanty-Mansiysk:


"Ilves recently met Medvedev, with a result that was more or less zero-sum. But the Russian president unleashed Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the Duma Committee on International Affairs, to attack Estonia (and Latvia). The usual story: discrimination against Russian minority; attempts to falsify history; fascists.

Then Ilves participated in the 5th World Congress of Finno-ugric Peoples, 28.06.08, in Khanty-Mansiysk. He gave a speech - see below -, in English. First there was furious criticism: why was the speech in English and not the Estonian president's own national language? Very simple – the Russians, as usual afraid of Ilves and Estonians, indicated that no translation from Estonian into Russian would be available. Simple: let him talk in gobledegook; no one will understand.

English, however, is understood. The contents of the speech made the Russians spit blood. They claim that it basically incites Finno-Ugric peoples to seek independence.

Then today, in the ongoing World Congress Kosachev (after already having attacked Estonia the evening before at a press conference) rides again. Takes the floor and says that much was said some time ago about the beating up of a Mari national representative. But what about Estonia using violence against innocent people as happened during the Bronze Night when one person was also killed, the investigation about this having been inconclusive.

Then Ilves and the Estonian delegation stood up and left the conference hall. (Reportedly, some time later, also the Finnish and Hungarian presidents left)."



President of the Republic of Estonia at the 5th World Congress of Finno-ugric Peoples28.06.2008

June 28th, 2008 in Khanty-Mansiysk


No one is so smart as to dream up a detailed plan of social development in a way that it is immutable. True, that kind of planning has been tried repeatedly throughout history, and although always unsuccessfully, it will probably be tried again.

A plan is good, when its sustainability, the correctness of its chosen path is checked every day, when it is open to criticism and to change. This is the way free and democratic societies function, where those elected must ask the voter every day: am I doing the right thing? Am I going in the right direction, are my decisions understandable, do they satisfy you? This principle works just as well for communities smaller than the nation-state as well as for ones that are larger, such as international organizations.

Daily checks of our goals are also healthy for the world-wide finno-ugric community. And even if the questions might be unpleasant and the answers horrible. Without an internal audit it’s always even worse. Speaking here today I have to admit I do not have prepared answers for all finno-ugric peoples. I have my own personal answers, my own notions, my own preferences. Our joint answers can come only out of joint efforts, from co-operation.

So what is the big idea in finno-ugric common efforts? Are language and a language tree of people’s relatedness drawn long ago in the past enough to be the altar tryptich we bow down to? Is this enough to confirm our faith and provide the cement for remaining true to ourselves everywhere and for everyone? Can they be the inexhaustible source of pride?

Indeed, alongside the finno-ugric people, the indo-european, turkish-tatar, and other linguistic groups hold no language-centered world congresses to speak of. This is a solely Finno-Ugric distinction.

Language, and the preservation and development of languages, are truly important. But this can only occur successfully when we are engaged not in a narrow philological activity or garnishing for avcational ethnography, but a socially encompassing, in other words political, theme.

The three largest finno-ugric peoples have experience with this. After all, in the European Union, the supra-national organization to which Estonia, Finland, and Hungary belong, linguistic diversity, protection of languages and ensuring one’s ability to employ them at all official levels have been treated by all member nations as a political matter they have closely followedd.

The European Union umbrella has given the Estonian, Finnish, and Hungarian languages new guarantees they have never before possessed in their history. In no other continent exist such guarantees or no other international entity takes the health of languages as seriously.

We might thus ask: how can we put all finno-ugric languages under European Union protection to ensure their preservation and development?

In what I have said I have already drawn a line between those finno-ugric peoples who are in the EU and the rest, who aren’t. This distinction raises an important question. Do we draw any distinctions among finno-ugric peoples? Belonging to the EU as countries can be used merely as a formal distinction without implying judgement.

But there are also dangerous emotional, evaluative differences that may not be conducive to cooperation.

Should we and can we even classify our peoples as developed and undeveloped? As bigger and smaller brothers? As native and non-native? As those peoples with a written culture and those without one?

These are vague measures whose use won’t really lead anywhere, though it may boost some egos and sink others. They would seem to imply that some are given more rights and duties while others are freed of responsibility.

Consider indigenousness. Both Estonians and Finns consider themselves quite indigenous to their homes; Estonians have been tilling their fields on the shores of the Baltic for about 5000 years.

Yet we are not indigenous peoples in international parlance. Whenever business suit and cologne-wearing gentlemen in far off palaces and halls of government start talking about the worries of “indigenous peoples”, I always get the feeling that this talk is not fully sincere, but a myopic attempt to secure for the evening entertainment festooned in ethnic costume.

And “valuing indigenous cultures” is nothing but political cover to ensure market success for this branch of the entertainment industry. Or perhaps a belated apology and simulated activity to make good upon previous mistakes and maybe even crimes.

At the same time, if a still stateless people declares its indigenousness to be its sole remarkable characteristic, it thereby conveys a message that, in today’s world, calls upon others to bear responsibility for it. Presumably because of some historic injustice, as such a declaration always has a price tag attached.

If, however, we draw no distinctions, and do not create artificial or emotional divides among ourselves, cooperation will come to rest upon a strong foundation, upon common values. Hungarians, Finns and Estonians have chosen so-called European values, which today manifest themselves in the use of liberal democracy to order society.

Ask yourselves: does this choice necessarily presume an independent state? No it doesn’t. Back when these societies chose to be European, they had no states of their own and Europe, too, was very different from what it is today.

But freedom and democracy also make for good rules of the game in non-state structures. Freedom and democracy were our choice 150 years ago, when not even the poets dreamt of an Estonian state.

Many finno-ugric peoples have yet to make this choice. As a small aside it bears mentioning, particularly in light of the example of Estonia, that once you have tasted freedom, you will realize how much of it is sacrificied in the name of surviving or just ‘getting by’.

The European Union’s critics claim that Estonia, along with Finland and Hungary, have given away part of their sovereignty, their right to make free and independent choices. But, as detailed above, linguistic-cultural guarantees give back to us every day many times what we have given up.

Precisely through the European Union have the finno-ugric languages for the first time in their history developed a truly global reach. Our language rings in the meeting rooms of Brussels and Strasbourg, as I have myself repeatedly witnessed in my previous position as a member of European Parliament.

Here, in Khanty-Mansiysk, which borders Europe’s eastern geographic boundary, it may seem a bit odd to speak of Europe, the European Union, and European values. But still – freedom and democracy are universal values that acknowledge neither national nor geographic borders.

Europe’s understanding of diversity as a value applies to, and must apply to, everyone. Every individual, people, and culture is part of a global balance, an ecological balance, if you will. If one part, however small, is taken out of the system, lost, or extinguished, nobody can predict what kind of catastrophe this might bring about somewhere else.

It is said that the flapping wings of a butterfly can cause a hurricane. The finno-ugric people may indeed be small butterflies among all of humanity, but it is a concern for all of humanity to ensure that these butterflies not flap their wings in the wrong place the wrong time, in a way that might be fatal to those much larger than the butterflies.

The Czech writer Milan Kundera, writing in French, has an essay with a German title, Die Weltliteratur, („Global literature“ in English) in which he writes:

Small peoples differ from large nations not only on quantitative criteria, but also in something deeper. For small peoples existence is not self-evident, an indisputable fact, but a permanent question, a wager, a risk; they are always in a defensive position face to face with History, a force greater than they, which does not take them into account, which does not even notice them.

Kundera goes on to ask what would be the case if the icelandic Sagas had been written not in icelandic, a nation of 300 thousand, but in English.

Quote: „The names of the heroes in the Sagas would be as familiar to us as Tristan or don Quijote. Their esthetic particulars, their chronology and their imaginative intermediaries would have provoked all kinds of theories, people would have argued whether or not to consider them the first European novels.“

Most importantly, argues Kundera, they would have influenced living literature through the ages. But they did not, because there are too few icelanders. But does this mean that they are worth less? That in the pantheon of great creations of the human imagination, that they are of any lesser stature than the creations of large nations. To the contrary, even the smallest peoples can create the greatest literature.

This is why the ecology of cultures and peoples is an issue for all mankind. This is why the European Union cares.

The utility of global balance is well understood in the European Union. If the finno-ugric question has taken on a powerfully international dimension anywhere, it is there. The finno-ugric question has become an inexorable issue on the agenda of partnership talks between the European Union and Russia. Recently, the European Union appropriated 2.5 million Euros for the support of native peoples in Russia.

The European Union and its members are the motor that has driven the harmonization of protections for minority rights in Europe. And, we might now ask, would finno-ugric concerns be on the European agenda if Hungary, Finland, and Estonia were not members of the Union? Hardly. And herein lies the answer to why European values are also useful east of the Urals.

Much is happening on the field of Finno-ugria, of which account has been given and will be given during this Congress.

This is an opportunity primarily for governments, but also for civic organizations and every citizen.

I do not wish to deprive anyone of the joy of telling us what praiseworthy work he has done and intends to do henceforth. Nevertheless, let me emphasize that the more multifaceted the underlying basis of our cooperation, the more securely it rests on common basic values, the more assuredly the finno-ugric wagon will roll in the right direction.

As a start, freedom and democracy, and by extension Europe, are not at all bad basic values. And, to be honest, there’s really no alternative.

Resistance

Via BBC:

The UN Security Council is expected to return to the issue of Zimbabwe in the coming days.

However, diplomats say that because of resistance from South Africa, China and Russia, the council is unlikely to impose sanctions.

Edinburgh Error

The Bookseller reports that the Edinburgh International Book Festival has chosen to commemorate Israel's 60th anniversary by presenting a high-profile feature discussing the forced exodus of Palestinians in 1948.

The organisers are politically illiterate," said Colin Shindler, reader in Israeli and Modern Jewish Studies at London University. "The unsaid agenda is not to recall the Palestinian Nakba - a legitimate subject for discussion - but to underline the fact that the Jews really do not have a right to national self-determination in Israel. The festival's ‘outrage' is selective and they do a disservice to intellectual debate in this country”.

Second Wind

At Prague Watchdog, Sergei Gligvashvili takes a look at what appears to be a revival of the Chechen underground resistance. For those who read Russian, the comments to this article on the current situation in Ingushetia mayalso be of interest (an English version of the article in my translation can be read here, though without the Russian and Chechen comments).

Wider Europe

Pavel Felgenhauer, in Eurasia Daily Monitor:

At present Moscow is using threats that Ukrainians will suffer if their nation joins NATO or if the Russian fleet is ousted from Sevastopol. At the same time, Russia has been supporting pro-Russian separatist feelings in Crimea and making territorial claims on Sevastopol. Moscow needs a pro-Moscow allied government in Kyiv or, if that is impossible, a separation of Crimea and Eastern and Southern Ukraine (with Mykolaiv), where millions of Russian speakers may either want to join Russia or form an allied protectorate.

The situation is different in Georgia, where a vast majority voted to join NATO in a referendum on January 5. There is no hope in Moscow that any anti-NATO pro-Russian forces may come to power in Tbilisi, and military action in support of separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is being seriously contemplated (see EDM, June 12). The Russian Foreign Ministry has officially announced that Moscow refuses to discuss with Tbilisi the legality of the deployment of additional troops and armaments in Abkhazia, because the troops "prevented a Georgian blitzkrieg" (www.mid.ru, June 17). When substantial talks are essentially stopped while additional troops are deployed, it’s more than just a threat of the use of force.

Heather Maher, at RFE/RL:

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried told members of Congress on June 18 that the wave of democracy that swept from Central to Eastern Europe in 1989 has yielded astonishing and successful results in terms of democracy, human rights, and free-market systems. The question now, he said, is whether that wave will extend to the easternmost borders of what he called "wider Europe."

By that, Fried was referring to the Caucasus: specifically, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia -- three very different states that share similar problems. All are struggling to quell internal separatist conflicts, to establish independent judicial institutions and modern financial systems, and, in general, to build new identities as sovereign, successful nation-states.

Fried offered his comments to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, which heard that U.S. foreign policy toward all three countries is to support them as they journey along the same path toward full democracy and market-based economies that their neighbors to the West have already traveled. Fried said no outside power -- he mentioned Russia specifically -- should be able to extend its sphere of influence over the three.

"We do not believe that any outside power should be able to threaten or block the sovereign choice of these nations to join the institutions of Europe and the trans-Atlantic family, if they so choose, and if we so choose," Fried said.

Ratifiers and Rejecters

RFE/RL's Ahto Lobjakas considers the implications of the Irish "No", and concludes:

The problem that now faces the EU is not so much that some more enthusiastic member states might break away to launch a "multispeed" union. In some ways this is already uncontroversially the case as attested by the Schengen area, the euro zone, and the so-called "G6" police-cooperation scheme. Also, a selective political union with a president and a foreign minister would be very difficult to establish -- given that it would need to include Britain (or lack global clout) and would probably be unacceptable to Germany in view of Berlin's overwhelming interest in stability at its eastern borders.

More likely is an attempt to isolate Ireland, moving ahead with the rest of the 26 member states. Ireland would then have to hammer out its own individual arrangements with the rest of the EU. This would set a dangerous precedent for the rest of the skeptics, openly undermining their powers within the EU combined with the threat of possible exclusion. The Lisbon Treaty could yet be rejected by the Czech Republic, where it has been submitted to the Constitutional Court for approval. Many other countries in Eastern Europe are also intensely skeptical of further political integration.

Russia, which increasingly vies for influence at the EU's eastern borders, will no doubt be following events with keen interest.

Finland threatens elderly dissident with deportation

The Finnish government is threatening to deport Maria Kirbasova, a semi-paralysed 67-year-old Russian woman who led an organisation of mothers of Russian conscripts, and also a protest against the war in Chechnya. From YLE (Finnish State Radio and TV):

Kirbasova's daughter, Kermen Soitu, told YLE Sunday that she and her mother have been contacted by many Finns offering their encouragement. In addition several church parishes have offered support, but none had extended sanctuary to Kirbasova. Soitu did not say if sanctuary would be sought from the church if no other means is found to keep her mother in the country.

Soitu did say that her mother will not return voluntarily to Russia.

"If the police come to the door with guns and forcibly take her away, then she will have to go. This is a familiar situation for my mother. During the Second World War she was exiled to Siberia. History repeats itself." said Kermin Soitu.

The Finnish Immigration Service rejected a residence permit application by Kirbasova because a mother-daughter relationship is not considered sufficient grounds for residence.
On Friday, the Helsinki Administrative Court rejected an appeal and upheld the order for her deportation.

Kirbasova arrived in Finland to stay with her daughter last October following her husband's funeral. The elderly and ailing Kirbasova wants to stay in Finland because of the quality of health care and rehabilitation services. She has no relatives in Russia to provide her with care. Her daughter has been supporting her and paying her medical bills in Finland.

One difficulty connected to Kirbasova returning to reside in Russia is her involvement in founding an organization opposed to the conflict in Chechnya.

"She has not been popular with the establishment in Russia for a long time. And, as a dissident, she will not get even the least amount of help," her daughter says.

Vera has more on the Kirbasova case here.

Update (June 10): Maria Kirbasova has been granted a one-week period of grace.

Obama's Schumer Problem

The New York Sun has taken Democratic senator Charles Schumer to task for suggesting in the WSJ that the U.S. could obtain more leverage on Iran by adopting a more concilatory approach to Russia in matters of foreign policy, and especially in the matter of the missile defence shield:

First, we must treat Russia as an equal partner when it comes to policy in the Caspian Sea region, recognizing Russia's traditional role in the region. Second, we must offer to make Russia whole if it joins in our Iranian boycott and forgoes trade revenues with Iran. That will cost the U.S. roughly $2 billion to $3 billion a year, about what we spend in Iraq each week. Third, we should tell Mr. Putin we will cease building the ineffective antinuclear missile defense sites in Eastern Europe in return for him joining the boycott.

The Sun responds:

Mr. Schumer claims that the missile defense sites are "to thwart the threat of a nuclear missile attack by Iran," a threat that Mr. Schumer describes as "hypothetical and remote." Well, if the governments in Poland, and Czech Republic, and Romania thought the threat was so remote, they would not have invited the missile defense sites to be there.

Our enemies have already launched large-scale attacks against European targets — 191 killed in the Madrid train bombing of 2004, 52 dead in the London bus and subway bombing of 2005, eight killed on Monday at the bombing of the Danish embassy at Islamabad. To the relatives and friends of those victims the threat seems neither hypothetical nor remote. Nor to the Israelis who were attacked by Iraqi scud missiles in the Gulf War or by Hezbollah terrorists with Zelzal and Fajr missiles during the 2006 Lebanon War.

Memories Denied

While in Russia itself the process of de-sovietization (the public discussion of what happened during the Soviet era) has never really begun, and probably never will, in the Union's neighbouring former republics the process is already advanced. One of the most striking recent manifestations of this was the publication in 2006 of a full-length book by the Estonian film maker and journalist Imbi Paju, entitled Memories Denied (Finnish translation (2006) - Torjutut muistot, Swedish translation (2007) - Förträngda minnen). The book examines in minute detail the stages of the cultural genocide that was waged by Moscow against the small independent West European Estonian state. Yet the description is not that of an anonymous history text - as in Paju's documentary film of the same title, it is transmitted through the mouths of living survivors, who include Imbi Paju's mother and aunt. While the narrative is extremely moving on a personal level, it also throws unique light on aspects of 20th century European political reality, especially the close relation between the ideologies of Nazism and Soviet Communism, which throughout the 1930s worked in a collaborative symbiosis, the results of which only became truly perceptible towards the end of the decade. A short extract from the chapter on the signing of the Nazi-Soviet Pact in 1939 gives some idea of the period's terrible surrealism, which had consequences that were all too real and apparent:

While compiling the documentary Memories Denied, I viewed some film clips of the pact signing ceremony. As the Foreign Minister of Nazi Germany, Ribbentrop, emerged from his airplane in Moscow, swastika flags were flying in the capital of the Soviet Union. My mother and her twin sister were then 9 years old. I found myself thinking – in a mere moment, it was a single gesture of one statesman’s hand, his signature, that determined the fate of a small person, a child.

On September 27, 1939, Ribbentrop returned to Moscow to discuss the infamous additional protocols, which were secret. Even thirty years later, Molotov would deny their existence. British historian Simon Sebag Montefiore, in his work Stalin. The Court of the Red Tsar has vividly described how Ribbentrop held his talks with Molotov at the green baize table in the Kremlin.

It was evening. Stalin wanted not only Estonia and Latvia, but Lithuania as well. Ribbentrop telegraphed Hitler asking his approval for the transfer of Lithuania. Since Hitler’s reply did not come right away, the talks were postponed until the next day. But no reply came on that day either. Still, Ribbentrop wanted to negotiate some cartographic details with Stalin. That night, while Stalin held a gala dinner for the Germans, the Russians met with Karl Selter, the unhappy Estonian Foreign Minister, to force him to agree to Russian military bases on Estonian soil, the first step toward occupation. While this was going on, the German guests were being welcomed at the door of the Great Kremlin Palace through the dull Congress Hall into the brightly lit scarlet and gold reception room. Stalin’s manner was simple and unpretentious, beaming with paternal benevolence that turned into icy coldness as he rapped out orders. The behavior of the Russians was so vulgar that Ribbentrop said he felt as at ease as he did among old Nazi comrades. As dinner ended, Stalin and Molotov excused themselves to attend to business. The Germans were sent off to the Bolshoi to watch Swan Lake. As he left, Stalin whispered to Kaganovich, “We must win time.” Then they walked upstairs where the Estonian Foreign Minister Karl Selter waited fearfully to find out what Stalin was planning to do with his tiny country. Molotov demanded the deployment of a Soviet garrison of 35,000 troops in Estonia – more than the entire Estonian army. “Come on, Molotov, you’re too harsh on our friends,” said Stalin, suggesting instead that 25,000 Russian soldiers be deployed to Estonia. Having swallowed the small country of Estonia during the first act of Swan Lake, Stalin returned to the Germans at midnight for a final session during which Hitler telephoned his agreement to the Lithuanian concession.

No sooner was the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact signed than Russia began devouring Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The Kremlin had little sympathy for those who had shattered the 200-year continuity of the tsarist empire. The prime ministers of the three Baltic states were summoned to sign a “defense and mutual assistance pact” that would let the Soviet Union establish military bases on their territory, which would of course ensure the continued independence of these three countries. Since the only other alternative was war, all three Baltic States reluctantly agreed, hoping to find some escape from the situation at a later time.

(Torjutut muistot / Tõrjutud mälestused) Like Publishing Ltd., 2006
English translation from the Estonian original by Tiina Ets

The publishing rights of Memories Denied are with
OTAVA GROUP AGENCY
Hanna Kjellberg
Foreign Rights Manager
hanna.kjellberg@otava.fi

http://www.otava.fi/oga

Meanwhile, RFE/RL reports that a group of deputies at the European Parliament have launched a drive to have the EU declare August 23 a European Day of Commemoration of the Victims of Stalinism and Nazism.

A Permanent Irritant

At Prague Watchdog, Sergei Gligvashvili speculates that Chechnya's increasingly independent President Ramzan Kadyrov may break with tradition and fail to disappear, as Chechen presidents usually do, at the behest of Moscow.

Russia planning invasion of Georgia - 2

Vladimir Socor, in EDM:

Russia’s deployment of armor and artillery in recent weeks to Abkhazia compounds its violations of the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE). The Russian military had all along stockpiled such “unaccounted-for treaty-limited equipment” in Abkhazia and is now adding to it. A rebuilt rail line can also help reactivate the Gudauta base with its large storage capacity, where Russia retains a garrison in further breach of the CFE Treaty package.

According to interviews with the de facto Abkhaz leaders in the Russian and Western media (Interfax, AP, May 31), the railroad will be used in part for carrying building materials from Abkhazia to nearby Sochi in Russia, the 2014 Winter Olympics site. In March Russia’s Regional Development Minister Dmitry Kozak announced that Russia would use construction materials and manpower from Abkhazia for the Sochi Olympics projects. In May Russia’s Krasnodar Territory governor Aleksandr Tkachev signed an agreement with Abkhaz authorities on transporting millions of tons of building materials (apparently stone and wood) from Abkhazia to Sochi (Kommersant, June 2). If this is done, the Sochi Olympics will be tainted through close association with Russia’s seizure of territory by force from a neighboring country.

The timing of Russia’s deployment adds insult to the West. The deployment coincided exactly with the May 30-31 trip by fifteen ambassadors of European Union countries from Tbilisi to Sokhumi in an unprecedented peace initiative. It also seems timed to demonstrate Russia’s sense of impunity ahead of EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana’s June 5 visit to Tbilisi and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili’s June 7 meeting with Medvedev in St. Petersburg.

Russia planning invasion of Georgia

UPI reports that the Georgian foreign ministry has alleged that Russian officials are planning an invasion of Georgia's Abkhazia region.

The Litivinenko Annexe

Ian Traynor, writing in the Guardian about the EU's new strategic partnership project:

Under what a European diplomat described as "the Litvinenko annexe", Moscow would come under pressure to extradite Andrei Lugovoi, the Russian MP and main suspect in the London murder by radiation poisoning.

UN Supports Georgia Claim

Via BBC:

A Russian jet did shoot down an unmanned Georgian drone over the breakaway
Georgian region of Abkhazia last month, UN monitors say.

Returning

Prague Watchdog's Andrei Babitsky discusses the question of the Chechen returnees.

Thaw in a frozen conflict

The situation in the Kodori Gorge continues to be uneasy, with both sides in the "frozen" conflict warning of impending war. A lot of this appears to be rhetoric for foreign consumption. However, something is afoot, and a Times correspondent witnessed

a convoy of Russian military fuel tankers en route to Sukhumi from the border crossing on the Psoi river. At an Abkhaz base near the Kodori Gorge troops took delivery of two trucks loaded with shells.

Who's Who on Ethnic Cleansing

Joining with Russia to excuse ethnic cleansing was an unusual constellation of countries: Armenia, Belarus, North Korea, India, Iran, Myanmar, Serbia, Sudan, Syria, and Venezuela.

EDM

Derision

Given his track record of inflammatory remarks, Luzhkov had been met on arrival at Simferopol airport by Ukrainian State Security Service officials, who gave him a written warning against infringing Ukrainian law or undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In front of television cameras, Luzhkov read out the warning derisively and, with his entourage, burst out laughing at the Ukrainian document (Russian Television, May 10).

-Vladimir Socor, in Eurasia Daily Monitor

Rescheduling

I'm currently getting uaed to the new schedule at Prague Watchdog, where some changes in the way the site operates are underway. This is taking up some time, and it means I'll be posting a bit less here for a while. However, I'll hope to resume more frequent posting soon.

Breaking the Silence

As EU ministers prepare to visit Georgia next week, Jamestown's Eurasia Daily Monitor points to a hushed-up fact that needs to be borne in mind by the delegation:

The Russian military, not the Abkhaz (17 percent of the region’s pre-conflict population) evicted the Georgian population (45 percent of the pre-conflict population) from Abkhazia by force. Yet Moscow has tried to put an Abkhaz face on that act, thereby turning the Abkhaz from ad hoc allies into long-term hostages to Russian policy. Using a similar method, Russia is now attempting to put an Abkhaz face on the downing of one or more Georgian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in internationally recognized Georgian air space.

The Timing of a War

In the Washington Post, Anne Applebaum considers the possibility that Abkhazia could become the starting point of a larger war, and reflects:

If you wanted to attack an American ally, or if you just wanted to destabilize and unnerve an American ally, wouldn't this be the perfect moment? Perhaps if the Russians don't take the opportunity, someone else will.

.

Putin's Choice

In the Washington Quarterly, Zbigniew Brzezinski writes about Vladimir Putin, suggesting that "the turn toward political authoritarianism in Russia was a choice, not a necessity."

(Hat tip: Marius)