Estonian Election: Analysis of Results

Mari-Ann Kelam of the Pro Patria/Res Publica Alliance (IRL) has compiled the following analysis of the election results:

There were 977 candidates contesting 101 seats from 12 different election districts. 895,760 eligible voters, 550,098 or 61.9% of the people voted. Now it remains to be seen if the biggest vote getter - the Reform party led by Ansip - forms a coalition with Savisaar’s Center party or with Pro Patria Union & Res Publica Union and perhaps the Social Democrats and/or Greens. We are relatively happy with our result, but if we had gotten three more seats we would have been in a much stronger position to make a coaltion with Reform and to prevent the current government (Center & Reform) from re-grouping.

Erakond Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit
Jaak Aaviksoo 4224
Ene Ergma 3980
Andres Herkel 1249
Kaia Iva 888
Tarmo Kõuts 2847
Mart Laar 9525
Tõnis Lukas 3922
Marko Mihkelson 2694
Erki Nool 3178
Mart Nutt 889
Juhan Parts 2968
Marko Pomerants 3144
Urmas Reinsalu 1886
Helir-Valdor Seeder 4089
Peeter Tulviste 2366
Toomas Tõniste 909
Ken-Marti Vaher 2312
Trivimi Velliste 2984
Taavi Veskimägi 5792

Erakond Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit asendusliikmed (those next in line if the person ahead of them leaves the Riigikogu for some reason, perhaps to become a government minister. NB: only those who received more than 500 votes qualify) Depending upon the district, some people were elected with 800+votes. On the other hand, there were three of us in the IRL who each received over 2000 votes, but didn’t get in because there were not enough other votes in our districts to form one more mandate.

Asendusliikmed ja hääled (vaid 500 häält ja enam)/ Substitutes and their votes

Valimisringkond nr 3
1) Lauri Vahtre 2054
Valimisringkond nr 4
1) Mari-Ann Kelam 2403
2) Elle Kull 2078
Valimisringkond nr 5
1) Andres Ammas 763
2) Toomas Takkis 613
Valimisringkond nr 6
1) Mihkel Juhkami 574
Valimisringkond nr 8
1) Tiina Oraste 692
Valimisringkond nr 10
1) Margus Tsahkna 785
2) Peeter Laurson 558
3) Mihhail Lotman 557
Valimisringkond nr 11
1) Ülo Tulik 920
2) Tiit Niilo 740
Valimisringkond nr 12
1) Külvar Mand 1609
2) Mati Sutt 603
3) Jüri Kask 569
4) Ela Tomson 526
5) Mart Alliku 501

Erakonnad - mandaadid ja hääled
Parties - how many seats and how many votes

Eesti Reformierakond Reform
31
153 031

Eesti Keskerakond Center Party
29
143 554

Erakond Isamaa ja Res Publica Liit
19
98 203

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond Social democrats
10
58 347

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised Greens
6
39 303

Eestimaa Rahvaliit People’s Party
6
39 217

Erakond Eesti Kristlikud Demokraadid Christian Democrats
0
9 445

Konstitutsioonierakond Constitution party
0
5 466

Eesti Iseseisvuspartei Independence party
0
1 275

Vene Erakond Eestis Russian party in Estonia
0
1 085

Eesti Vasakpartei Estonian Left party
0
608

Üksikkandidaat Single candidates
0
564

Some of Pro Patria and Res Publica’s votes were lost to the small parties which didn’t get any seats and probably to the Greens. The Christian Democrats seemed to have a LOT of money this time - even for TV advertising - but no big vote getters. We could have used those 9445 votes to be in a stronger position for the coalition negotiations.

Update: Meanwhile, the Estonian Foreign Ministry has issued its own official run-down of the results, which can be accessed here.