Signpost to Munich

At the BBC, William Horsley writes that some kind of turning-point or watershed in Russia's relations with the West appears to be approaching, and points to the upcoming 45th Munich Security Conference as the next arena where some new moves will be made.

A letter from Stalin

In the aftermath of the killing of the journalists Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova,  Gasan Guseinov has published at Grani.ru a Letter of Advice from Stalin to Russia's Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev. An excerpt in my tr.:

...One might have thought that a sensational political assassination would free your hands for a mass purge of the bureaucratic organs. But what do we hear from your representatives? That the responsibility for it all is borne by a certain Boris Abramovich Berezovsky, who resides in London. The question arises that if he is such an influential comrade, why is he working not for you but against you? And why are the comrades, who should have complied with your instructions for comrade Berezovsky long ago, not even able to catch his hirelings from your own, Comrade Putin, reserve of cadres?

Comrade Putin, today you do not have a dialectical answer to my questions. Nor do you have a metaphysical one. The other day Comrade Churchill invited Comrade Molotov and myself to visit him – simply for a smoke and a chat. An out-and-out imperialist, but he supports the interests of post-Soviet Russia, and even said that in the lands of bourgeois democracy the politicians, unable to cope with their work, are resigning, declaring general elections and waiting for the voters to decide.

You and I understand that the people now entrusted to you do not yet have the legal means to prevent them seeing any more of the mournful members of your cabinet on their screens. We like you, but we, I am afraid, are dead. And the populace expects from you, if not humanity – we have given up such expectations for three generations into the future – then at least the expression of a careful compassion – either for the victims of the murder which your employees are unable to solve, or for the heroic Chekists who deserve a sheriff’s star, so to speak, for precisely fulfilling the leadership’s cherished dream. There is no third way, comrades: if it is humanity you want, then learn to leave, as Churchill did, or if it is only power you want, then cut off the decomposing cadres, as we did the comrades by using the bared sword of the working class.

A few words about television. Do not forget, please, to tell the masters of the television camera that your joint press conferences with Comrade Timoshenko are not to be broadcast live any more. Semyon Mikhailovich [Budyonny] here says she is a good-looking woman whose words have logic and whose mind has skill. "But our Pan sportsman,” says Comrade Budyonny, “ just sweats and looks nervous all the time." The whole Politburo advises you, even urges you, to go to Tskhaltubo [a spa resort in west-central Georgia] for medical treatment. Demyan Bedny was recently sent there. He returned like a man alive. Transfer the discharge of your obligations for a while to Comrade Sechin, who is glowing with health and the subdued charm of the steppes, take the other political mountain skier – Comrade Medvedev – with you, and go to Tskhaltubo.

Hat tip: Jeremy Putley

Georgia: Moscow's detente trade-off

Commenting on Moscow's recent announcements concerning plans for military bases in Abkhazia, Pavel Felgenhauer has noted that these official statements appear to indicate a hardening of policy which may have consequences both for Georgia and for other countries that neighbour Russia:

It seems that Russia is building up a case and capabilities for a possible new armed conflict to finally overrun Georgia. At the same time, Moscow is seeking a tacit understanding from Washington to allow it a free hand in the Caucasus in exchange for detente on other contentious issues.

Russia planning air force base in Abkhazia

Via civil.ge:

Deployment of unit of the Russian air forces on Bombora airdrome [in Gudauta] is being considered in consultations with the Abkhaz side, along with creation of a naval base in Ochamchire,” Interfax reported quoting the source.

According to this report, Russia wants to deploy up to 20 planes on the Abkhaz airfield, including Su-27 Flanker fighter jets; Su-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft and military cargo planes.

Moscow plans to annexe part of Georgia

At Window on Eurasia, Paul Goble writes about Moscow's plans to take formal control of the tunnel that runs from Russian territory into South Ossetia, thus effectively annexing a part of Georgian territory:

Because of Russian power and its control of the situation on the ground, Moscow almost certainly will not only get away with this action but will be spared criticism by countries which in their desire to move forward in their relations with the Russian government want to put the Georgia affair behind them.

But Tbilisi has international law on its side. In 1931, in response to the Japanese invasion of China and Tokyo’s establishment of the puppet state of Manchukuo in Manchuria, the United States articulated the Stimson Doctrine, which holds that the world must not recognize territorial changes achieved by force alone but insist that any change be by negotiations.

That principle, which was the basis for the US-led non-recognition policy with respect to the Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, is the legal foundation of the unwillingness of the entire international community -- except for the Russian Federation, Nicaragua and Hamas -- to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Holocaust Remembrance Day

Via Haaretz:

In her speech to the assembly,[Professor Gabriela] Shalev [Israel's Ambassador to the UN] said the world has the "responsibility not to remain silent" to the genocide perpetrated by the Nazis during World War II.

"To remain silent and indifferent to the horrors of the Holocaust is probably the greatest sin of all, let alone denying it," she said. "We have a responsibility to act against the forces of anti-Semitism, bigotry and racism in any form."

Haaretz notes that UN General Assembly President Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann skipped the ceremony

after American Jewish leaders threatened to demonstratively exit Tuesday's if he used the podium to attack Israel.

D'Escoto, who has repeatedly made virulently anti-Israel statements, was to be the event's host by virtue of his official position and was scheduled give the opening speech.

Red-Green coalition in Iceland

It looks as though Iceland's troubles may be about to take a turn for the worse: in the aftermath of the resignation of the country's prime minister and government yesterday, a minority Red-Green coalition is in the process of being formed, and is likely to govern after the elections scheduled for May. The FT has some comment here.

Russian soldier defects to Georgia

Via civil.ge:

The Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) said on January 27, that a Russian soldier, serving in the South Ossetia-based military unit, had defected from the Russian army and sought shelter in Georgia because of “unbearable conditions” in his military unit.

The Georgian television stations aired footage, disseminated by the Georgian Interior Ministry, showing a young man in the Russian military uniform named as Alexandr Glukhov and identified as a Russian soldier who served in the unit deployed in Akhalgori.

“There are bad conditions, no bath; lack of food,” he says in footage. “I request the President of Georgia to let me stay in Tbilisi.”

The Georgian Interior Ministry said in a statement that efforts were underway to arrange his stay in Georgia.

Russia to build naval base in Abkhazia

Abkhazia's Sergei Bagapsh has confirmed that Russia is to begin work this year on the construction of a naval base at Obamchire, on the Black Sea.

Gaza and Basra

In the Spectator, a British soldier who served with the army's Intelligence Corps in Iraq and Afghanistan gives his perspective on Israel's Gaza operation. In the problems faced by the IDF during Operation Cast Lead he sees direct parallels with the difficulties that were encountered by British forces in Iraq, including the public relations dimension opened up urban warfare and the methods needed to combat an enemy such as Hamas, which "is willing to dress in civilian clothing, attack from legally protected sites and use civilians as human shields". He also addresses the issue of so-called "disproportionate" firepower:

A fact often unappreciated by those with no military experience is that the selective use of overwhelming force, aimed at key targets, actually shortens conflict and saves lives. In Basra in 2003 the USA and the UK chose to use extreme force against locations that had been fortified by the Ba’ath Party, in order to spare our troops and the people of Basra the horror of a drawn-out street battle. It appears that the IDF made the same choice in Gaza.

Via Z-Word Blog

Understanding the Russian-Georgian War

The Hudson Institute has published an analysis (pdf) by Andrei Illarionov of the Russian-Georgian War of 2008. Among points raised in the document:

- Russia began to get ready for the war at the latest in the middle of 2001, when the preparations for mass distribution of the Russian passports for South Ossetians and Abkhaz started. But preparatory moves may even have been underway as early as 2000.

- The purpose of the war was political and economic regime change, and the division of Georgia into 7-9 smaller states, "that would eventually come under pressure and protection from the mighty neighbor. It would be the recreation to some extent of the situation in which Georgian kingdoms and principalities spent most of the 17th and 18th centuries."

- The correct name of the war is "The Russian-Georgian War", and not "The August War" or "The 5-Day War". The conflict lasted much longer than Russian media and government sources claimed.

(via Marko Mikhkelson,who also cites an Estonian study of the war published by the International Centre for Defence Studies in Tallinn)

Why the BBC is right this time

In the Observer, a graphic demonstration - if any further proof were needed - that the internal anti-Israel bias among BBC staff and correspondents is so strong that the corporation's decision to reject the broadcasting of a one-sided "charity appeal" is the only one possible if the BBC's charter is to be saved from ridicule and contempt. A former BBC Middle East correspondent expresses his antipathy to Israel in terms that are truly disturbing:

The big question that remains is this: what are the suits scared of? Why do BBC managers try to second-guess our government and even outreach it in grovelling to the United States and Israel?

Markelov/Baburova murders: theories

The Other Russia has published an article by Olga Malysh which examines the various theories concerning the theories that surround the murders of Stanisalv Markelov and Anastasia Baburova. Essentially, Malysh sees the killings as a further stage in the eclipse of civil society in Russia, and as a terrible warning. Excerpt:

Guessing at why Stanislav Markelov was killed is pointless and fruitless.  He was involved in a multitude of high-profile cases.  He could have had enemies from practically every one of them.  Stanislav was a lawyer for the Kungayeva family, which means he was connected with the scandalous case of [Yury] Budanov.  In his time, Markelov represented the interests of the Chechen family in the case of Sergei Lapin (radio call sign “Cadet”), who was accused of torturing Grozny resident Zelimkhan Murdalov.  He was the attorney for Anna Politkovskaya, the victims in Blagoveshchensk (Rus), and “Nord-Ost”.  He fought for the right of amnesty for a Chechen resident, Musikhanov, who refused to serve under [Chechen President Ramzan] Kadyrov.  One can’t list everything.

Recently, Markelov had spoken as a lawyer for Mikhail Beketov, the editor-in-chief of the Khimkinskaya Pravda newspaper who was all but killed in the fall of last year.  Incidentally, they were friends.  The deceased lawyer wasn’t afraid of directly implicating the Khimki city administration in the attack on the journalist.  They say Stanislav was even conducting his own investigation.

Another critical detail – Markelov defended many activists in the Antifa [anti-fascist] movement.   Specifically, he took part in the murder cases of 19-year-old Alexander Ryukhin, teenager and skateboard enthusiast Stas Korepanov, and ecologist and anti-fascist Ilya Borodaenko by right wing [nationalist] radicals.  He was the attorney for the family of anti-fascist Alexei Krylov, and represented Alexei Olesinov, the Moscow leader of Antifa accused of hooliganism, in court.

More responses to murders of Markelov and Baburova

Excerpt from Caucasian Knot:

A rally is now on in the Peoples' Friendship Square in the capital of Chechnya in connection with the murder in Moscow of well-known advocate Stanislav Markelov.

Many people in Chechnya are shocked by Markelov's murder.Representatives of political parties, public and human rights organizations,youth movements and higher school students have held a broad-scale protest action in Grozny.

The action was also attended by several dozens of women who held photos of their killed and missing friends and relatives in their hands.

One of participants of meeting, a woman named Zara, 48, who had lost her daughter and niece in the course of a "counterterrorist operation", related the advocate's murder with Budanov's release.

Usam Baisaev, another participant of the rally and employee of the Human Rights Centre "Memorial", was of a similar opinion, having stated that Budanov had not killed Markelov himself, "but it was done for him and for his sake."

This opinion was also supported by Aslambek Apaev, another human rights activist and expert of the Moscow Helsinki Group (MHG) for Northern Caucasus,who also took part in the action. "I've already said and now repeat: Stanislav's murder is directly linked with Budanov. Yuri Budanov was released not in order to be put back to prison, while Stanislav's execution is a warning to everybody who will further dare investigating the crimes accomplished by militaries in Chechnya and trying punish them," said Mr Apaev.

See also: Chechen responses to murders of Markelov and Baburova

Terror continues to increase in Russian Federation

At Maidan, Halya Coynash writes about the mounting terror in the Russian Federation. Excerpt:

Those who ordered and who carried out the murder of Anna Politkovskaya remain at large, as do those guilty of many similar crimes against Russian journalists, human rights defenders and civic activists. There have been calls for a thorough investigation into the killing of Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova. This is quite correct and to be wholeheartedly endorsed.

Only nobody expects them to find the killers. A young Chechen refugee, Umar Israilov, was gunned down a week ago in Vienna. There were equally correct calls for the Austrian authorities to investigate given the allegations the young man had made against the current Kremlin-supported President of the Chechen Republic. However, if their investigations hit another dead end as did the British investigation into the murder of Alexander Litvinenko, what then?

How many more people need to die in Russia before others are fully terrified into meek submission? How many more killings will the world tolerate on other countries’ territory?

20 January marked a very special day for the USA and the world. It was a day many of us who grew up knowing Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream” speech never imagined we would live to see.

It is almost 20 years since the events which culminated in the freeing of Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet empire. The latter also seemed impossible to dream of in our lifetime. The world hailed the victory of democratic values in the new republics. Everybody knows that momentous change comes hard and we all knew that stumbling steps, not strides, were to be expected.

However what is happening in Russia, still ruled to a large extent by Vladimir Putin who openly called the breakdown of the USSR the greatest catastrophe of the twentieth century, is about the systematic destruction of the fragile buds of democracy, and in many aspects a return to methods not seen for decades. We are seeing the State using aggression, terror and repression against its own people and against any whom it regards as its enemies.

A Soviet syndrome, not an imperial one

In the recent pages of the Ukrainian news and current affairs analysis service UNIAN there's an interesting interview with the Russian philosopher Igor Chubais in which he discusses the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a clash of two incompatible systems: Ukraine's, which is based on a painful but liberating movement towards Western Europe, and Russia's, which is essentially a revisiting of the totalitarian past. While the political and social change in Ukraine is accompanied by special problems that have not been encountered by its citizens before, the crisis in Russia is leading to a revival and reinforcement of "old" psychology. This was evidenced in the recent poll of "great Russian names", in which that of Stalin proved to be near the top of the list. "Perhaps," the interviewer suggests, "the Russians are guilty of being unable to abandon the idea of their 'elite status' and Messianism, and it's easier to revive the idea of rebuilding the empire on such sentiments." Chubais disagrees:

One can't put the blame on Russian culture, Russian history and the Russian mentality. Because we're not actually in Russia any more. It's called the Russian Federation now. After 1917, a break occurred ... It was Rozanov who said in 1918 that an Iron Curtain [my link] had descended on Russian history. We were torn up from our own roots. And everything that happens in our country is Soviet and post-Soviet history: for us it's still 1917.

We made no attempt to break free from the shackles of totalitarianism until 1991 - but we failed, and since 2000 the Soviet symbols and Soviet values are once again being inculcated in us.

Obama on America in the world

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use; our security emanates from the justness of our cause, the force of our example, the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy. Guided by these principles once more, we can meet those new threats that demand even greater effort - even greater cooperation and understanding between nations.

From President Barack H. Obama's inaugural address, January 20 2009

Watching the inauguration

Jussi is watching the inauguration, too.

Chechen responses to murders of Markelov and Baburova

Chechnya's human rights ombudsman Nurdi Nukhazhiyev, who is officially appointed by President Ramzan Kadyrov, has said in a public statement that he suspects Yuri Budanov, the Russian army colonel who was found guilty of murdering a young Chechen woman, Elza Kungayeva, but recently released on parole, of complicity in the murders of the lawyer Stanislav Markelov and the journalist Anastasia Baburova in central Moscow yesterday, UNIAN reports. Kadyrov's press spokesman Lyoma Gudayev has also issued a statement carried by RIA Novosti in which he says that Markelov's murder will lead to a worsening of tension in inter-ethnic relations in the republic.

However, Michael Schwirtz, writing in the IHT, reports that

Lela Khamzayeva, another lawyer for Kungayeva's family, was adamant... that the killing of Markelov could not be linked to his connection with Budanov, because his role during the actual proceedings against the former colonel was, as she put it, "insignificant."

"If someone is trying to link this murder with Markelov's participation in the Budanov case, well, that's just ridiculous," she said

The article points out that the list of potential suspects is very long, and may include extremist groups that seek revenge for Markelov's role in pursuing cases that were not specifically Chechnya-related, such as those that concerned the racist killings and attacks that have been carried out in Russia by neo-fascist and xenophobic thugs with increasing frequency in recent years.

von Sydow: "Sweden must arm against Russia"

From BarentsObserver:

“I believe it is time for the Swedish Armed Forces to adjust to a situation with higher level of threats”, former Swedish Minister of Defence Björn von Sydow writes in a newspaper comment. He believes Russia constitutes a growing threat to all of its neighbouring countries.

In his comment in newspaper Dagens Nyheter, the former defence minister gives a remarkably clear picture of his perception of today’s Russia.

“It is around today’s and tomorrow’s Russia that the question about a threat picture must be discussed”, Mr. von Sydow writes. The distinguished former politician in the comment gives a strong signal to current legislators that it is time for the Swedish Armed Forces for step up investments in domestic defence.