Brzezinski's Comment

Dr. Brzezinski: Comment


http://maidan.org.ua/static/mai/1101999236.html

Clearly we are at a historic moment. What we are witnessing is profoundly moving, in terms of Ukraine [the birth of a nation]. It is the wedding of Ukrainian nationalism with Ukrainian democracy on a popular level. And that is a dramatic moment in the history of a nation of almost 50 million people. So we have to be profoundly conscious of it.

I think it is also appropriate for us as private citizens to express our support and commitment of support to President-elect Yushcenko. Because I think it is very important to be clear about that. I think the scale of the fraud and the statistical results officially announced clearly indicates that he is the victor.

Ambassador Fried spoke about the importance of clarity. And you are quite right, clarity is essential. And I think we have in both the United States and Europe clarified our position, our view of what is happening. But I think clarity will increasingly call for more than that, namely, clarity also about consequences. And these consequences have to be both positive and negative, vis-à-vis Ukraine but also vis-à-vis Russia. Because we cannot separate the issue from Russia, because ultimately the issue of Ukraine involves the future of Russia. The Ukrainian struggle for democracy is a struggle about the future of Russia. If Ukrainian democracy prevails, Russia has no choice but to go to the West and to be a democracy. If Ukrainian democracy fails, Russian imperial ambitions are reawakened, there is a temptation of an alternative future, which is imperial and authoritarian. So we are involved because of the scale of this problem.

The consequences have to be both positive and negative. Positive in terms of inducements. Inducements to Ukraine in the sense of awards for Ukraine going forth with democracy. Inducements for Kuchma, and his family, assurances about their personal safety, about their "fortune", arrangements which provide encouragement for a decent resolution. And Kuchma has to be made aware of the fact that the Lukashenko choice is not going to be profitable for him. And that has to be made clear to Moscow, too, because Moscow sponsored Lukashenko. Kuchma has to be made aware of the fact that the best out for him is the Saakashvili [Georgia] result, and there looms in the background danger of a Cuicesciu [Romania] consequence if he doesn’t accommodate. And in terms of consequences, if things go badly in Ukraine, if we end up with a Lukashenko arrangement at least for a while, we shouldn’t just ostracize Ukraine. If we just punish Ukraine, we will push it more into the hands of those in the Kremlin who’d like to recreate a larger Russian sphere.

And therefore, it has to have an effect on American-Russian relations. And that has to be stated flatly, boldly, privately at this stage, not by you and the government, but it’s something the Russians have to be made aware of, that simply succeeding with a Lukashenko model in Ukraine is not going to be a free ride for Russia. Because, otherwise, the Russians have no incentive also to tell Kuchma, "Lay off, we don’t want a crisis to the south, we don’t want an explosion in Ukraine, and we don’t want ostracism, tension, worsend relations with the West."

So, we [Americans] and the Europeans have to be very clear of this, because the stakes are truly of historic proportions.