Latvia and the citizenship issue

In an EDM commentary (December 1) on the current situation in Latvia, Vladimir Socor reports that on December 1 the political parties of Latvia entered into a broad-based coalition. The outgoing government, which resigned in October, had relied on the support of a Russian leftist party,but this had not been sufficient to keep it in office. The new coalition government contains a rmarkably far-ranging spectrum of parties, and includes

the right-wing, free-market New Era party led by former prime minister Einars Repse; the conservative, pro-business People's Party of former prime minister Andris Skele and prime minister-designate Aigars Kalvitis; the politically colorless Latvia's First Party led by business tycoon Ainars Slesers; and the Greens and Farmers Union led by the outgoing Prime Minister Indulis Emsis. These parties hold 24, 20, 14, and 12 parliamentary seats, respectively, for a cumulative 70 seats. In addition, the right-conservative Fatherland and Freedom with seven seats, as well as up to three independent deputies, have announced their support for the new coalition government, raising its parliamentary majority to nearly 80 seats in the 101-seat parliament.

Socor notes that this coalition is unprecedented in post-1991 Latvia, as it has massive public support from the Latvian population, and effectively isolates the Russian parties, which follow a left-wing political agenda. The Latvian economy is picking up fast, and the problems that face it tend to be those of success rather than failure: they are associated with a healthcare system that's in need of reform, a privatization program, and a degree of inflation. The new government, which it's hoped will last until 2006, intends to tackle these issues and, Socor writes: "This agenda suggests that Latvia is well on its way toward the condition desired by all three Baltic states: 'turning into boring Nordic/EU countries.'" There is, however, one problem over which the country has little control, and which essentially emanates from beyond its borders:

On Latvia's (as well as Estonia's) road to that destination, a major stumbling block is Russian-instigated manipulation of the issues of language and citizenship.

As part of those tactics, Russia is now enlisting OSCE help to pressure Latvia and Estonia into ratifying the Council of Europe's Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities. Far from all of the EU and CoE member countries have signed or ratified that document; and many signatory countries introduced reservations and exemptions at their sovereign will. Only Latvia and Estonia are now coming under pressure to ratify. In Latvia's specific conditions, with a Soviet-bequeathed Russian/"Russian-speaking" population amounting to more than one-third of Latvia's total population, and forming outright majorities in Riga and the other cities, implementation of the terms of that Convention could achieve Russia's policy goal of turning Latvia into a bi-national country.

The controversy over that Convention is turning into a major internal and external policy issue for Latvia. The coalition's programmatic declaration does not mention that issue.