Identifying the rebels

In the New Yorker, Jon Lee Anderson writes about the social and political profile of Libya’s “rebels”:

In Benghazi, an influential businessman named Sami Bubtaina expressed a common sentiment: “We want democracy. We want good schools, we want a free media, an end to corruption, a private sector that can help build this nation, and a parliament to get rid of whoever, whenever, we want.” These are honorable aims. But to expect that they will be achieved easily is to deny the cost of decades of insanity, terror, and the deliberate eradication of civil society.

Gates speech

US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates: Speech to the Kuznetsov Naval Academy, March 21, 2011.

The Hawks

In Jamestown’s North Caucasus Weekly, Mairbek Vatchagaev discusses Kabardino-Balkaria’s Black Hawks:

First, the man in a mask makes a statement in good Russian, without any accent characteristic of Kabardins or Balkars, monotonously reading his text as if he were a television announcer. Next, the Russian media, as if they were awaiting orders from above, begin a public relations campaign to energetically promote this paramilitary organization on all TV and radio channels and in the Russian press. Yet, for some reason, the Russian prosecutor-general’s office has not yet filed a criminal case against those who openly called for the murder of children of the militants’ relatives one and a half months after the statement was made.

Comments

Please note that comments to this version of the blog are currently suspended - but it's possible to comment on the posts in the alternative version, here.

Two sides of the same coin

The curious standoff between two types of political extremism on the fringes of Europe – yet in close proximity to the Russian Federation – continues unabated. Most recently,  Finland’s Helsingin Sanomat daily newspaper reported on one aspect of the affair, namely the news that Finland’s public prosecutor is demanding a jail term for the Finnish businessman Mikael Storsjö, who is accused of illegally helping dozens of Chechen refugees to enter Finland. But this is only a part of the ongoing situation, which involves a vitriolic campaign by two Finnish pro-Russian activists – the Lutheran pastor Juha Molari and the university lecturer Johan Bäckman – whose aim is apparently to call into question the activities of human rights campaigners in the North Caucasus, and also at the same time to challenge the policies of governments in the Baltic states, particularly those of Estonia and Latvia, with regard to their Russian-speaking minorities.

The problem for outside observers who are trying to make sense of it all is that the confrontation between Molari/Bäckman on the one hand, and Storsjö/pro-Islamist (Doku Umarov) Kavkaz Center website on the other, looks suspiciously like a manufactured conflict representing two sides of the same extremist coin.  Since most of the details are published either in Finnish or Russian on websites not normally visited or read by Western media, the potential for disinformation on these and related issues is probably rather high.


Update: Mikael Storsjö's reply, and my own further response, can be read here. (There appears to be a technical problem with the comments on the Blogger version of this site - the one you are reading now -  so I've suspended them until the matter can be put right. Comments on the Wordpress version will appear as usual.)

Umarov

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12388681

Обращение перед отправкой

Обращение перед отправкой моджахеда Бригады Шахидов "Риядус Салихийн" на задание в Россию.

Not terrorism, but an act of God

Writing in ej.ru, analysts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan suggest that by placing the blame for the Domodedovo tragedy on lax airport security, the Kremlin has finally come out into the open and has opted to classify terrorist acts of this kind as natural disasters rather than planned attacks. The security services will no longer work to find the culprits, but will hide behind a mask of official impenetrability, making the guardianship of “security” their number one priority instead. 

Piontkovsky: Putin will use Domodedovo to return to Kremlin

Via Interpress News 

Russian political scientist Andrei Piontkovsky is convinced that Russia’s de-facto leader PM Vladimir Putin will use the Domodedovo tragedy to get back to Kremlin .

“The occurrence once again proved that the Russian Security Service is totally incompetent. However, it is the Russian paradox that the Interior Minister and the Security officials won’t be punished and dismissed”, Piontkovsky stated in his interview with InterPressNews.

He considers that it was the full scale of the terrorist act that caused astonishment not the act itself.

Russian land sales ban upsets Finland

On January 9, Russia’s President Medvedev signed a new decree which specifies border areas where foreign citizens are not allowed to purchase land. The areas include nearly all the regions of the Russian Federation bordering on Finland and Norway, all the way from Pechenga in northern Russia to the Gulf of Finland in the south (near Helsinki).

Finland has asked for an explanation of the new law, according to the Barents Observer, with foreign minister Alexander Stubb making an official representation to the Russian authorities, as quite a few Finns have already bought land in the areas that are now banned:

What will happen to those foreigners that already own land in this areas is highly uncertain. The Finnish Embassy in Moscow is examining the significance of the decree, reports Helsingin Sanomat.

- We stick to the principle of reciprocity as long as it is realistic and possible, says Alexander Stubb, interviewed by YLE.

- We’ll talk with Russian authorities about how this can be realised. If one can buy land here, then of course one should be able to buy land on the other side of the border as well, says Stubb.

Mistral and Sweden’s security

Ever since the announcement of the controversial Mistral arms deal between France and Russia on Christmas Eve 2010, the Swedish press has been publishing articles about the implications of the deal for Baltic security, and Sweden's security in particular. On January 7 Dagens Nyheter noted that concern about the sale of the Mistral assault ships to Russia was high because these helicopter carriers can be used for landing operations - presumably in the course of a military invasion. Bo Pellnäs, a Swedish defence analyst, commented that although the carriers will be based in Murmansk, they can be moved anywhere. This, against the background of reports that Russia is to increase its military expenditure by 60 percent, and last fall held its largest military exercise in the Baltic Sea since the 1980s, is giving rise to fears in Sweden that the country's security may  be compromised.

On January 5 a member of the Swedish parliament, Mikael Oscarsson, requested a statement from Foreign Minister Carl Bildt on what the deal means for the security of the Baltic Sea as a whole. Oscarsson also said that it was necessary to ask Russia about the purpose of the invasion capability, and that a tightening of Sweden's defence with Poland might be needed.

Now, in an interview published in the Swedish current affairs journal Världen idag (The World Today), Oscarsson says that his concerns are heightened by the internal political situation in Russia in the aftermath of the recent unsolved murders of journalists and the sentencing of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev.

"We need greater cooperation between Sweden, Poland and the Baltics, but we should also invite Russia to talks. I'm not one of those who say that the Russians are coming, but we cannot assume that anyone else will defend us. Therefore, we need to respond and ensure that we have a fleet that works."

In Poland, Polskie Radio has taken up Mikael Oscarsson's question, and there are reports that the military ties between Sweden and Poland may strengthen in response to Russia's investment in the new warships.

The U.S. think tank and news agency Stratfor's East Europe analyst Marko Papic says that just five days into the new year Mikael Oscarsson's question to Carl Bildt shows that the geopolitical map may be redrawn.

"The area of Sweden, Poland and Russia will be crucial for European security and political issues in 2011," he said in a statement.

Letter to Khodorkovsky and Lebedev

Letter from Committee to MBK and PLL 30 December 2010

Dear Mr Khodorkovsky, dear Mr Lebedev

We have read today with gratitude your message of encouragement to your supporters: “Our combined efforts have not been without success. A regime without the law is like a stool without legs. It looks foolish and the future is unpredictable.” Yours is the moral victory.

The rulers now in power in the Russian Federation have subverted the rule of law, but that is not all. They have betrayed the high ideals set forth in the Constitution. They have subverted democracy itself. They have installed and maintained a corrupt kleptocracy and brought dishonour on their country. By their misdeeds they have brought Russia into disrepute among the nations of the world. They have reinvented the mock trial for our new century. They are the men of yesterday.

The regime has demonstrated its lack of conviction, its absence of courage, by the decision to defer the announcement of the sentences until the last moments of the year, in the hope that the news of this renewed injustice will not be much noticed.

Your supporters around the world have not been discouraged by the weak, illogical decisions of the judge in your case, since it is clear that he has not been able to withstand the pressures imposed on him by those in power. Instead, we take encouragement from the moral pressure now on President Dmitry Medvedev to exercise his prerogative and to use the constitutional Presidential Pardon available to him, as is his undoubted right and his clear duty.

We take courage also from the idea that the overwhelming struggle of humanity is for justice and morality everywhere, and the weight of all humanity cannot, finally, be defeated by perverted men temporarily in positions of power.

We thank you for the moral stand you have taken against injustice, and the courage you have shown during your long ordeal. We wish you health and good spirits to enable you to withstand the difficulties ahead of you; and we assure you of our continuing support until the day when you are set free and can return to your families and loved ones.

On behalf of the Committee to Free Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev

Jeremy Putley, United Kingdom

Maren Koop, Germany

Cliff Esler, Canada

WikiLeaks and extremism - 2

At Harry's Place, Joseph W draws attention to some further aspects of Russian WikiLeaks, and the shadow it casts on the whole of the WikiLeaks operation.

Sphere of influence

Hundreds under arrest in Belarus

Timoshenko charged

Latynina on Assange’s aim

"Assange's aim is not the maximum dissemination of information - what we have at present, that is. Assange's aim is to bring the state system into a state of paranoia, so that it stops distributing information within itself and adopts a strict information diet, is unable to make the right decisions. Likewise, what will happen in the world after what Assange has done is highly dependent on the U.S., because the situation is reminiscent of what happened after the bombings of September 11. The problem was not so much the damage Bin Laden directly caused to the economy and human lives on September 11, but the fact that the state, being forced to react to the damage, sharply restricted the freedom of citizens and their rights, and the simple physical convenience of movement."

- Ekho Moskvy, Yulia Latynina, “Kod dostupa”, 11 December 2010

WikiLeaks and extremism

This article in Reason magazine looks at some aspects of the WikiLeaks operation that seem to have been largely ignored by its supporters.

Russia boycotts Nobel Peace Prize

Via the Telegraph: Russia joins China in boycotting Nobel peace prize

China has pressured countries not to attend and prevented Mr Liu, 54, or any members of his family from travelling to Norway to accept the award.

If that happens, it will be the first time the award has not been given out since 1936, when the Nazis banned journalist Carl von Ossietzky – a pacifist – from leaving Germany.

About Bout – 3

From Der Spiegel.

Russia’s Afghanistan strategy

In the run-up to the November 19 Lisbon NATO-Russia summit, an article in the latest issue of Newsweek looks at the ways in which Russia is currently drawing advantage from the Western powers’ difficulties in Afghanistan. These difficulties are highlighted by the impending major defence cuts in the UK and other European states, and by Russia’s projected 140% increase in military spending over the next three years. In particular, the article considers the possibility of a trade-off between Western security needs in the Afghan conflict and Russia’s plans for Eastern Europe, still seen by Moscow as a legitimate sphere of military and political influence. Excerpt:

In return for cooperation in Afghanistan, Moscow is asking for substantial concessions from NATO. A draft agreement on NATO-Russian cooperation penned by the Kremlin and released last December includes proposed restrictions on NATO deployment of any force bigger than a 3,000-strong brigade in the combined territory of all former Soviet bloc members. Russia is also demanding that NATO not attempt to station more than 24 aircraft in Eastern Europe for more than 42 days a year. Most controversially, Russia also has demanded veto power on any Western military deployments of large additional forces anywhere in Central Europe, the Balkans, or the Baltics. To top off the wish list, the Kremlin wants limits lifted on Russian troops in the breakaway enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Hat tip: Wiseman

NATO’s plans for defence of E. Europe

Ahead of the annual NATO summit to be held in Lisbon on November 19 , the Polish daily newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza has published information about NATO’s new plans for the defence of Poland and the Baltic States in the event of a Russian aggression.  Nine divisions, of which four are Polish form part of the plan. In addition to these a  further five divisions will be transported to Eastern Europe with British, American and German units by land and sea links.  Observationsplatsen has more details.