Russia is unlikely to sign the treaties with Estonia and Latvia in the near future, and this situation will strain relations between Moscow and Brussels, since the European Union insists on the speedy conclusion of the treaties between Russia and the two Baltic countries. As the attached political declarations are purely a Russian initiative, European policymakers will likely blame Moscow for stalling the process of final accommodation with the Balts (Politcom.ru, March 9).
Moscow's stiff position has two explanations. First, by pushing documents totally unacceptable to the Baltic governments, the Kremlin seeks to portray them as a bunch of intransigent crypto-fascists and thus discredit them in the eyes of their European Union partners. Symptomatically, in comments devoted to the release of the book History of Latvia: The 20th Century, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused the Latvians of harboring "sentiments of the historic revanche" that are being supported "at the highest state level" (mid.ru, February 2). Kremlin spin doctors believe Estonia and Lithuania's decision to stay home provides a powerful propaganda trump card. Some Russian commentators have already pointed out that the Baltic leaders' "demonstrative no-show" at the commemoration festivities will be a larger scandal than their "banal Russophobia" (Rossiiskaya gazeta, January 27).
Moscow seeks to discredit the Baltic leaders as a way to express its utter unhappiness about the role these new EU entrants play within the powerful bloc. The overwhelming majority of Russian political pundits view the Baltic countries as the "anti-Russian force within the EU" that poisons relations between Moscow and Brussels. Moscow is wary of the perceived ambitions of the Baltic states to act as Europe's chief experts on Russia and the post-Soviet space. Especially worrisome, in the eyes of the Kremlin strategists, is the Baltic political elites' active participation in the overall EU policy aimed at tearing certain CIS countries away from the Russia-led integration bloc and reorienting them toward the EU and NATO. According to one analyst at Russia's Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, there is even a peculiar "division of labor" between the new EU members, whereby Poland and Lithuania are "responsible" for Ukraine and Estonia and Latvia for Georgia (Russky kuryer, December 30, 2004).
The second reason behind Russia's behavior directly pertains to its current political identity, which is dubious at best and potentially dangerous at its worst. Almost 15 years after the collapse of communism, Russian society still has not unambiguously distanced itself from Stalinism; nor has the Russian elite fully repudiated the pernicious Stalinist legacy in its geostrategic thinking. On the contrary, voices are increasingly being heard in Moscow claiming that the Stalin era constitutes one of the most glorious pages of Russia's modern history. More alarmingly, one recent poll showed that 42% of respondents would like to see a "new Stalin" in the Kremlin (Novye izvestiya, March 5).
But there is a serious danger in the unwillingness to see one's history critically. The disastrous social practices that were not properly analyzed and condemned may well reproduce themselves. Such an alarming prospect cannot fail to disturb both the Baltic nations -- the undisputable victims of Stalinist foreign policy -- and their partners in the European Union.
Meanwhile,Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is the latest defector from the Moscow guest-list:
Russo-Japanese relations appear to have digressed back to the zero-sum, tit-for-tat, tenor that defined the relationship throughout the Cold War. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi announced on Thursday, March 10, that he would not attend the VE- Day celebrations to be held in Moscow this May. The announcement emerged as it became clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not be visiting Japan this spring for a summit meeting with Koizumi. The all-too-well known point of contention in the bilateral relationship is the "Northern Territories," the four southernmost Kuril Islands.
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