Unfinished Business

At Stratfor, Peter Zeihan has some interesting reflections on the probable future course of American foreign policy beyond the war on terrorism:

Unfinished Business in Russia

It should come as no surprise that the most dynamic part of U.S. foreign policy relates to Russia. Condoleezza Rice, appointed as Secretary of State at the beginning of the year, began her government work during the end of the Cold War, when she served as former President George H. W. Bush's Soviet expert at the National Security Council. Now that she is in the big chair at Foggy Bottom, she has surrounded herself with members of the same team from her previous stint in government service. Of particular note are former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick, former U.S. ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns, and Robert Joseph, former special assistant to the president and senior director for proliferation strategy, counterproliferation and homeland defense with the National Security Council (NSC) -- a wordy way of saying that he was really important. The three now serve essentially as Rice's No. 2, 3 and 4 at State.

As we stated when Rice was appointed in January, the State Department is now "staffed by a team that helped knock the Soviet Union off its superpower perch. Russia can look forward to four years of a State Department with the resources and the will to ratchet back Moscow's influence throughout the Baltics, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia and even its western Slavic flank. The confrontation over Ukraine was just the beginning."

Personnel changes have not been limited to the top tier. Vershbow's replacement as ambassador -- William Burns -- fits the mold set by Rice and her top team. He served at the U.S. embassy in Moscow as minister-counselor for political affairs during the 1980s, a position and time that would tend to shape one's political views. He is now coming back to Moscow after several years of knocking Israeli and Palestinian heads together.

In the case of Russia, however, the transformation is much deeper than "just" a fresh ambassador, secretary of state and top management team. The rank and file of the entire Russia desk at the State Department is being overhauled. Considering that most State Department personnel swap out positions every two to three years to avoid the dangers of going native, a certain amount of turnover is expected, but the top-to-bottom housecleaning in the case of the Russia team appears to be far more thorough than any scheduled rotation.

The big shift began -- and the direction of U.S. policy was set -- at the V-E Day celebrations in Moscow in May. During that trip, the Bush team bracketed a whirlwind tour past a parade stand in Moscow between deep, long and extremely friendly visits to Latvia and Georgia. The message was clear: the United States is now more concerned with the comings, goings and concerns of Vaira Vike-Freiberga and Mikhail Saakashvili-- the Latvian and Georgian presidents -- than it is with the Russians, and this message was sent on the Russians' national day.

In the Russian mind, it is all snapping into place: color "revolutions" in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine; NATO and EU expansion right up to the Russian border; the commencement of pumping on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline; and now a thorough personnel shift in the State Department that is stocking the top ranks with people who were present at -- and played a role in -- the Soviet defeat. The Kremlin's belief is that the West, led by the United States, is committing to a full-court press into Russia's geopolitical space in an attempt to permanently remove Russia as a threat.