NATO will defend the Baltic States

The Economist writes in an editorial that thanks to Poland, the NATO alliance will defend the Baltics:

When the war in Georgia highlighted NATO’s wobbliness on Russia, Poland accelerated its push for a bilateral security relationship with America, including the stationing of Patriot anti-missile rockets on Polish soil in return for hosting a missile-defence base... the Baltic states will get their plans, probably approved by NATO’s military side rather than its political wing. They will be presented as an annex to existing plans regarding Poland, but with an added regional dimension. That leaves room for Sweden and Finland (not members of the alliance but increasingly close to it) to take a role in the planning too. A big bilateral American exercise already planned for the Baltic this summer is likely to widen to include other countries.

Hat tip: Marius

Caucasus asylum seekers returning to Poland

RFE/RL reports that most of the 200 asylum seekers from Chechnya, Georgia and Ingushetia who attempted to travel to Strasbourg by train but were detained at the Polish-German border yesterday are now returning to Poland, where they are being temporarily held at a refugee centre in Warsaw:

The protesters -- who boarded the train without tickets -- told RFE/RL they wanted to go to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg to highlight their poor living conditions in Polish refugee centers and police abuse they said they have experienced.

The refugees have reportedly been refused political asylum in Poland.

Meanwhile, the pro-Moscow Chechen President Ramazan Kadyrov told journalists in Grozny today that the refugee protest in Poland is an "act of desperation."

He said, "If these people return home, their rights will be protected better."

Polish journalist Krystyna Kurczab-Redlich, who writes about human rights in Chechnya, told RFE/RL that it is hard to obtain political asylum in Poland in general but the European Union law known as the Dublin Regulation does not allow refugees to leave Poland for another EU country if an asylum request is refused in Poland.
She said that creates difficulties for Polish officials, who do not know what to do with the refugees, and leaves the asylum-seekers with few options.

Hammarberg in the Caucasus

Jamestown Eurasia Blog's Giorgi Kvelashvili writes about the four Georgian schoolboys who were kidnapped by Russian occupation forces in Georgia's Tskhinvali region on November 4, and are still being held in custody:

On November 27, the Council of Europe’s Commissioner for Human Rights Thomas Hammarberg arrived in Tbilisi and his meetings with various Georgian officials as well as those with the authorities in Tskhinvali will continue until December 4.

Georgian parliamentarians both from the ruling party and the opposition had severely criticized him for not doing enough for the release of the kidnapped schoolboys in particular and not issuing a special statement for almost one month after their kidnapping.

Both Georgia and Russia are members of the Council of Europe and despite the fact that this organization has already several times acknowledged that the Russian Federation is in breach of the August 2008 Russo-Georgian ceasefire agreement, mediated by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, little, if any, action has been taken to punish Russia for violating Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The first attempt by Hammarberg to enter Tskhinvali on November 29 failed after he was stopped on the “border” by Russian forces and, according to the Georgian media, several shots were fired from the city.

The next day Hammarberg was more fortunate and managed to hold talks in Tskhinvali, but nonetheless came back to Tbilisi empty-handed. 

For more on Hammarberg's apparent difficulty in tackling Russian and Moscow-backed authorities in the Caucasus, this time in Chechnya, see Prague Watchdog.

Mistral: a cold French wind blows east

Originally published in Estonian as Mistral: külm Prantsuse tuul puhub itta

http://www.epl.ee/artikkel/483208

David J. Smith*

The French Navy amphibious assault ship Mistral—named for a cold French wind—visits Saint Petersburg today. This is not just a port call; it is a sales call—with ominous geopolitical implications.

"We plan to buy one Mistral class ship in France and with technical support from the French to build four helicopter carriers of this class under license," said Vice Admiral Oleg Burtsev, First Deputy Chief of the Russian Navy Staff. It would be the biggest ever NATO country military supply to Russia.

The Mistral class of ships is designed to attack the shore from the sea, an ideal weapon for Russia to intimidate its neighbors. Mistrals can carry 16 heavy or 35 light helicopters, 4 landing craft, 900 soldiers and up to 70 military vehicles, including up to 40 tanks.

At about $800 million apiece, France’s motivation to sell Mistrals is understandable. Besides, sale proponents argue, a few modern ships to Russia’s barnacle-ridden navy will hardly threaten American dominance at sea.

However, is Paris prepared to reward Russian aggression against Georgia, ignore shredding of the ceasefire agreement negotiated and signed by President Nicolas Sarkozy, accept the help of Georgian soldiers in Afghanistan but enforce an unacknowledged arms embargo on Georgia, and meanwhile sell advanced arms to Russia? Does France really want Russia to have this littoral combat capability?

Ignoring these questions may evoke pleasant noises in Moscow for a time, but Russia will not reciprocate in any concrete way. Indeed, it will demand ever more to be appeased. And eventually Russia will employ the Mistrals in another act of aggression, thereby making France complicit.

Regrettably, the potential sale of Mistral class ships to Russia appears to spring from worse than unprincipled economics. France’s partnership with Russia, Prime Minister Francois Fillon recently said, “can take several forms in the defense sphere, from military cooperation to close industrial partnership.” Recall that Fillon a day before the April 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, told France-Inter radio, "We are opposed to the entry of Georgia and Ukraine because we think it is not the right response to the balance of power in Europe and between Europe and Russia.”

It is difficult to imagine what power Fillon imagines France will balance with the sale of Mistrals to Russia. However, one can readily discern Russia’s motivation for the purchase.
Moscow will not soon challenge US Navy dominance of the oceans. The Russian Navy for the foreseeable future will be a green water navy, operating close to home, largely as a complement to Russian land forces. And those forces undergird Russia’s intent to halt NATO’s eastward enlargement, particularly to Georgia and Ukraine; to retain its Black Sea Fleet headquarters in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol beyond the 2017 expiration of its leasehold; to discourage NATO from planning and exercising the defense of the post Cold War NATO allies; to challenge American cooperation with those allies; and eventually to roll back what it characterizes as encroachment from the west.

“All that we consider ours will remain ours,” said Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, toasting the 80th birthday of well known Soviet and Russian foreign policy specialist Yevgeny Primakov. The Baltic Sea, once a Soviet lake, is no doubt one of the places that Putin had in mind. When the Mistral navigated Skagerrak and Kattegat, the straits that lead from the Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea into the Baltic Sea, it steamed by the shores of united Germany; by Gdansk, catalyst to the upheavals that toppled the communist world that Putin so reveres; by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, now NATO members, once occupied but never cowed by the Soviet Union.

On Baltic shores, apart from Saint Petersburg, only Kaliningrad—headquarters of the Baltic Fleet founded by Peter the Great—remains of the world for which Putin yearns. And it was no coincidence, therefore, that in Kaliningrad on September 28, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told Russian troops who had participated in the exercise Zapad 2009, “I am convinced that we will be able to reestablish our navy in the next decade…We need a strong navy.”

And the Mistrals are part of the plan. On inland seas such as the Baltic or the Black Sea, Mistral class ships would make a big difference—and the Russians know it. Referring to Russia’s August 2008 invasion of Georgia, Russian Navy Commander Admiral Vladimir Vysotskiy recently remarked, “A ship like that would have allowed the Black Sea Fleet to accomplish its mission in 40 minutes, not 26 hours, which is how long it took us.”

Consequently, the Mistral’s call in Saint Petersburg must capture the attention of every NATO ally. The French sale of Mistral class ships to Russia would be a major adverse geopolitical development and a potential alliance buster—it must be stopped.

*David J. Smith is Director, Georgian Security Analysis Center, Tbilisi, and Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, Washington.

More "piracy"

The practice of accusing foreign states of "piracy" that is currently so popular among leaders of the Russian Federation seems to have acquired a new adherent. Via Civil Georgia:

Sokhumi will resort to “proportional measures” to protect vessels en route to Abkhazia if Tbilisi continues their detention, Abkhaz leader, Sergey Bagapsh, said in his appeal to UN, EU and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on August 18.

Georgian coast guard detained a Turkish cargo vessel carrying fuel to the breakaway region’s capital Sokhumi on August 17. The Georgian law on occupied territories bans economic activities in breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia without Tbilisi’s authorization.

Sergey Bagapsh write in his appeal that the detention of the Turkish cargo vessel was “third case of Georgia’s piracy” this year.

The anniversary approaches

As the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union approaches (August 23), some news stories:

First, Russia's defence minister announces that most of the hijackers of the Arctic Sea were Estonians. This later becomes eight detainees, of whom four are claimed to be Estonians, two Latvians, and two Russians. The Estonian government issues a statement saying that it received no official notification of the arrest of Estonian nationals from the Russian government, as would be required by the agreement existing between the two countries. Estonia delivers a note to the Russian embassy in Tallinn, requesting clarification.

The Czech government expels two Russian diplomats for suspected espionage. Russia calls it an "unfriendly act", and says it "will not promote development of normal relations between the two countries."

Georgia officially leaves the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent State, or former Soviet Republics, led by Russia).

Georgian government report on August war

The Georgian government has released an official report (pdf) on the events that led up to the Russian invasion of Georgia last year.

Among other things, the report states that

In 2008, the Russian Federation launched a full-scale assault against a sovereign state—its immediate neighbor, Georgia. This incursion, systematically preceded by political and other provocations, was the violent climax of policies pursued by Russia against Georgia over many years. Rather than work to peacefully resolve the conflicts in Georgia, Russia systematically stoked them. Moscow interfered in Georgian politics, supplied separatist militias with arms, ignored its peacekeeping responsibilities, failed to prevent widespread ethnic cleansing of Georgians and, ultimately, sought to annex Georgian territories by means of military force. Russia’s main goals have been to annex Georgian territories, overthrow Georgia’s legitimate government, subvert Georgia’s independence, curtail Georgia’s sovereignty, and send a message to its neighbors and to the West that it is in control of what it calls its “sphere of privileged interest”.

The report also contains a summary (pdf) of Russia's actions in the context of international law, which says that Russia's use of force “constituted an egregious breach of Georgia’s political sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Via civil.ge

The Gleiwitz scenario

In ej.ru, Yulia Latynina writes about the present Georgia crisis:

Events in South Ossetia are unfolding according to exactly the same scenario as one year ago. This scenario is called the "Gleiwitz Radio Station": German troops dressed in Polish uniforms attacked the German station. Then, accusing the Poles of "aggression", Germany attacked Poland "in defence". No sooner had U.S. Vice President Biden left Georgia, where he said that the US would be unable to give Georgia military help, than South Ossetian head Eduard Koikoity accused the US, Israel amd Ukraine of complicity in the genocide of the Ossetian people.

EU: S.Ossetia Polls ‘Illegitimate’ [civil.ge]

EU: S.Ossetia Polls ‘Illegitimate’

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 1 Jun.'09 / 13:52
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=21028

European Union said it “does not accept the legality of the ‘elections’,” held in breakaway South Ossetia on Sunday, and “nor its results.”

“The holding of such elections is illegitimate and represents a setback in the search for a peaceful and lasting settlement of the situation in Georgia. The EU reiterates its firm support for sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia within its internationally recognized borders,” the EU Czech Presidency said in a statement on June 1.

The breakaway region’s central election commission said that three parties – one officially backing the South Ossetian leader, Eduard Kokoity, and two others uncritical to him – cleared the 7% electoral threshold and secured seats in the 34-member parliament.

Party of Unity, according to the local election commission, received with over 46.3% and secured 17 seats; People’s Party – up to 22.6%, amounting to 9 seats and the Communist Party - 22.2% with 8 seats.

“Fidibasta” – Fatherland Party, which described itself as “a constructive, not radical opposition,” received 6,37%, failing to secure seats in the breakaway region’s parliament. The party has claimed widespread violations and intimidation of voters. The party has also questioned official voter turnout of over 80%.

Risk of Russian military intervention in Georgia?

Jamestown's Pavel Felgenhauer believes that there is:

With the internal military rebellion thwarted the outcome of a possible violent clash between the government and the radical opposition may be decided by Russia, which might choose to become militarily involved. Since mid-April Russian forces were poised on the ceasefire line in South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as its marines on landing ships offshore in the Black Sea for a possible intervention (EDM, April 16). The troops and tanks are deployed for immediate action, but have been waiting, apparently for events in Georgia to unravel, provoking violence and destabilization.

Moscow has angrily denounced the NATO peacekeeping exercises in Georgia as a "provocation" (EDM, April 23). Last week Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards were rushed from the North Caucasus to take up positions on the ceasefire line that Russia has unilaterally declared to be the new border (Interfax, April 30). Now any possible shooting incident on the ceasefire line will directly involve Russian soldiers, and can be used as a pretext for a new military invasion.

Former Georgian National Guard commander arrested

Via Civil.ge:

Former Commander of National Guard Arrested

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 5 May.'09 / 15:32

Koba Kobaladze, who served as commander of the national guard till February, 2004, was arrested on May 5.

Earlier on May 5 the Georgian Interior Ministry said that it had arrested Gia Gvaladze, who was commander of the Defense Ministry’s special task force in 1990s, in connection with plotting of the mutiny in the armed forces.

The Interior Ministry has released a video footage, recorded apparently with a body-worn covert camera and showing a man, purportedly Gia Gvaladze, talking to several persons – one whose face was blurred in order not to identify him and another one to whom the body-worn camera was attached.

When speaking about the planned mutiny Gvaladze mentions names of former senior military and security officials, including of Davit Tevzadze, a former defense minister; Jemal Gakhokidze, a former security minister; Koba Kobaladze, a former commander of national guard and Gia Karkarashvili, a commander of the Georgian army during the Abkhaz war in early 90s. Karkarashvili is now affiliated with Irakli Alasania’s political team, part of opposition Alliance for Georgia. Gvaladze says that these people would be supporting the planned mutiny.

He also says in the footage that murder of some senior officials and President Saakashvili’s close allies were also planned, including Giga Bokeria, deputy foreign minister; Vano Merabishvili, the interior minister and Gigi Ugulava, the Tbilisi mayor. The man also says in the footage that 5,000-strong Russian troops would move in and take positions at key east-west highway close to Tbilisi.

Koba Kobaladze told Rustavi 2 TV, shortly before he was arrested on May 5, that he had nothing to do with the mutiny plot.

Davit Tevzadze, former defense minister, said allegations about his involvement in the mutiny plot “is absurd.”

“It is impossible to even comment on these myths created by ill people,” Gia Karkarashvili said.

U.S. "seriously concerned" over Russia's border pacts in Sokhumi, Tskhinvali [civil.ge]

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 1 May.'09 / 11:15

The U.S. State Department expressed “serious concern” over the agreement signed between Russia and “Georgia’s separatist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia” on border cooperation.

Among other issues, the treaties envisage stationing of Russian border guard troops at the breakaway region’s administrative borders.

“This action contravenes Russia’s commitments under the August 12 ceasefire agreement brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy between Russia and Georgia, and violates Georgia’s territorial integrity,” the U.S. State Department said.

“We call on Russia to honor its commitments under the August 12 and September 8 ceasefire agreements. This includes removing its troops to positions held prior to the start of the conflict, allowing unfettered humanitarian access, and allowing human rights organizations to investigate allegations of ethnic cleansing in the two regions. Establishing a “border” under the control of Russian soldiers marks another step in the opposite direction,” it said.

Report: cyberattacks on Georgia came from FSB and GRU

Via Axis News:

Security researchers from Greylogic published a report which concluded that the Main Intelligence Directorate of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) and the Federal Security Service (FSB), rather than patriotic hackers, were likely to have played a key role in co-ordinating and organising the attacks, The Register writes. More circumstantial evidence has emerged linking the Russian authorities to cyber-attacks on Georgia that coincided with a ground war between the two countries in July and August last year.

The Stopgeorgia.ru forum, which became a fulcrum for attacks of key Georgian websites last year, uses an ISP located a few doors down from GRU headquarters. Greylogic reckons the site was added as a front for state-backed cyber-attacks under the cover of cybercrime.

The StopGeorgia.ru forum was part of a bulletproofed network that relied on shell companies and false WHOIS data to (a) prevent its closure through Terms of Service violations, and (b) to mask the involvement of the Russian FSB/GRU. By mimicking the structure of the Russian Business Network, a cyber criminal enterprise, it creates plausible deniability that it is a Kremlin-funded Information Operation. Greylogic's study concludes: "The available evidence supports a strong likelihood of GRU/FSB planning and direction at a high level while relying on Nashi intermediaries and the phenomenon of crowdsourcing to obfuscate their involvement and implement their strategy." Nashi is a youth group in Russia founded four years ago to counter anti-Russian and fascist tendencies in the country. The group is supposedly funded by Russian businessmen, but a pipeline from the Kremlin is suspected, The Register says. Long-standing rumours that Russia was behind cyber-attacks on neighbouring countries were recently fuelled when State Duma Deputy Sergei Markov claimed that one of his assistants was responsible for instigating cyber-attacks against Estonia in 2007. Shortly after this, Konstantin Goloskokov, a "commissar" in Nashi, claimed he and other associates were responsible for the month-long cyber-assault on Estonia. The Project Grey Goose Phase II report is a follow-up to an October report by the same group of security researchers on the Georgian cyber war.

See also: Moscow called on cyberterrorists to attack Georgian government networks

Radio intercepts confirm Russian troops entered Georgia on August 7

Via RFE/RL:

At a certain point, [David] Bakradze [Georgia parliamentary speaker] said, the provocations became an act of war that Georgia had to respond to, and he offered evidence that he said proves Russian tanks and troops entered Georgian territory on August 7 through the Roki Tunnel, the only road connecting North Ossetia, in the Russian Federation, to South Ossetia.

"At this point, this is still not public, but we have radio interceptions confirming Russian troops entering Georgian territory in the evening of August 7," Bakradze said.
Bakradze called that "the turning point" where the Georgian government had to make the decision to defend its territory and respond.

See also: Truth against lies

The death of international law

In the continuing Prague Watchdog debate between Sergei Markedonov and his critics, the latest contribution to the discussion examines the problem of Realpolitik as the matrix of contemporary fascism.

Georgia was not to blame for conflict

As calls emerge for an international inquiry into what led to the outbreak of armed conflict between Georgia and Russia, Norbert Strade points out that the whole debate is founded on a misconception:

...it is *not* about who did what in the months before the war broke out. That's of course an important question, especially for historians. But the real issue here is something completely different. Georgian forces never came even close to Russian territory and had no intentions to enter it, with other words, Georgia did not attack Russia, while Russian forces attacked and occupied Georgian territory, on the pretext that Russia has the right to interfere in an internal Georgian conflict. This is a classical case of a war of aggression, nothing less, nothing more. It started with the silly concept of a "disproportionate" Russian act, and now they are trying to move the focus even further away from the (latest) supreme crime committed by the leaders of the Russian Federation.

U.S. warship to arrive in Poti [civil.ge]

U.S. Warship to Arrive in Poti

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 5 Sep.'08 / 12:19

http://civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=19406

USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20), a flagship of the U.S. 6th Fleet, will arrive in the port of Poti on September 5 with humanitarian aid onboard, the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said in a statement.

The command and control warship is expected to arrive in the port town – in the outskirts of which Russian forces maintain outposts – at 5 pm local time.

“USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) plans to deliver more than 17 tons of relief supplies, including 4,000 blankets donated by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), juice, powdered milk and hygiene products,” the U.S. embassy said.

This will be the third ship to have transported humanitarian aid to Georgia. Two previous ships - a U.S. navy guided missile destroyer, the USS McFaul, and a U.S. coast guard cutter, Dallas (WHEC 716) – dilivered aid in the port of Batumi last month.

Ramms: NATO will defend Estonia

The following information comes from the Newsru.com web site:

General Egon Ramms, NATO’s Operational Level Commander, is reported to have said on Estonian television today that in the event of military conflict the Alliance will defend Estonia against any aggressor. "NATO has a programme of action on the territory of the Baltic countries in the event that they need to invoke the fifth article of the NATO treaty," Ramms is quoted as saying on Tuesday at a press conference in Tallinn at the end of a two-day visit to Estonia.

Ramm also rejected a statement by Estonian author and former military NCO Leo Kunnas, who had claimed it would take the alliance at least a month to provide military aid to Estonia if a conflict began. Estonian Defence Forces Commander Lt. Gen. Ants Laaneots accused the country's media of creating a climate of nervousness in connection with doubts of assistance from NATO in case of an attack on Estonia. "Newspapers should not continually raise this topic, you will ruin everyone’s nerves," Laaneots is reported as saying. According to him, NATO would be able to come to Estonia’s assistance within at least 7 days after a possible outbreak of conflict.

Tomorrow General Ramms will go to Riga, Latvia.

Georgia takes Russia to ICJ

Georgia has filed a lawsuit against Russia in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), claiming that Russia, through the separatist authorities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has violated a convention meant to eliminate racism, the Hague-based court said on August 12. [civil.ge]

Russian tanks and artillery still active in Gori

Ekho Moskvy reports that Russian tanks and artillery are still active in the vicinity of the town of Gori in spite of the cease fire. Russian snipers are also active on the buildings. Lenta.ru mentions a Georgian security council statement which claims that 50 Russian tanks have entered the town.