Stratfor infiltration attempt

From the Telegraph:

It was… revealed yesterday that one of the agents, a man called Andrei Bezrukov who passed himself off as Donald Heathfield, had been attempting to infiltrate influential US risk advisory group Strategic Forecasting.

The Texas-based company, better known as Stratfor, said Mr Bezrukov had held five meetings with them to try to get them to install his software on their computers.

“We suspect that had this been done, our servers would be outputting to Moscow,” George Friedman, the firm’s chief executive officer, said. “We did not know at the time who he was. We have since reported the incident to the FBI.”

International nationalists

“…the Nazis were not simple nationalists. Their nationalist propaganda was directed toward their fellow-travelers and not their convinced members; the latter, on the contrary, were never allowed to lose sight of a consistently supranational approach to politics. Nazi "nationalism" had more than one aspect in common with the recent nationalistic propaganda in the Soviet Union, which is also used only to feed the prejudices of the masses. The Nazis had a genuine and never revoked contempt for the narrowness of nationalism, the provincialism of
the nation-state, and they repeated time and again that their "movement", international in scope like the Bolshevik movement, was more important to them than any state, which would necessarily be bound to a specific territory. And not only the Nazis, but fifty years of antisemitic history, stand as evidence against the identification of antisemitism with nationalism. The first antisemitic parties in the last decades of the nineteenth century were also among the first that banded together internationally. From the very beginning, they called international congresses and were concerned with a co-ordination of international, or at least inter-European, activities.“

- Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, second edition, 1958, pp. 3-4

Al-Jazeera under pressure

On the fourth anniversary of the Lebanon-Israel war, American, Israeli and Canadian victims of Hezbollah rocket attacks have filed a lawsuit against the Qatar-based Al-Jazeera television network, alleging that

Al-Jazeera intentionally reported live coverage of the locations of the missile strikes inside of Israel in violation of military censorship regulations, in order to enable Hezbollah to aim the missiles more accurately.

Via beforeitsnews.com

Strange games

In the current issue of Yezhednevny zhurnal Alexander Podrabinek examines the current U.S.-Russia “spy swap” and detects a strong element of farce in the proceedings [my tr.]:

Why farce? Judge for yourself. The Russian spies who have been uncovered in the U.S. are the embodiment of amateurishness and mediocrity. And the FBI’s ten-year hunt for them can be taken about as seriously as the Russian spies themselves. The political prisoner Igor Sutyagin was not a political opponent of the regime and ended up in jail more or less by chance – simply because the FSB needed to demonstrate its success at least in something. Sutyagin bears no guilt, either political or espionage-related. He is a random victim of the Chekists’ ambitions and conscious manipulation. For his work with open sources he received 15 years in prison – quite a dramatic result of the farce performed by the FSB.

Sutyagin did not plead guilty at his trial. A large public campaign was organized in his defence, and Amnesty International declared him a prisoner of conscience. Three years ago Sutyagin filed a petition for clemency, but a few days ago he signed a written statement expressing repentance for the crime he did not commit. This was the price of freedom. According to his relatives, he explained his repentance by saying that if he had not written the statement the exchange would not take place and he felt very sorry for the Russian spies arrested in the United States, who would have had to serve time in jail, as he had. A strange argument, I think, and a very weak position, especially given that the people who have defended him all these years were sincerely convinced of his innocence. While they are unlikely to change their minds about this now, they will probably be more cautious in such cases in future. At least where Russian political prisoners are concerned.

Podrabinek sees a further dimension of strangeness in recent events:

While it is hard to congratulate Igor Sutyagin on his release, we can at least be pleased that he is free. However, it is far from clear why he needs to leave Russia. In this voluntary/involuntary departure there are echoes of the spy exchanges of the Cold War. But today, if Sutyagin still has Russian citizenship (and no one can deprive him of that), then what is to stop him returning to Russia whether temporarily or for good, at any time?

Some kind of strange game is being played by the Russian secret services. One has the impression that they thought up the idea of the exchange in a bad state of hangover, without even trying to relate their plans to current legislation and real life. Perhaps in a similar condition they also prepared the Russian spies for their work abroad. Well, they’re ours, and that explains a lot.

See also: Igor Sutyagin

Clinton voices support for Georgia

The Independent’s William Dunbar reports from Tbilisi that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has expressed firm support for Georgia, using the word “occupation” to describe the presence of Russian troops there.

British court acquits factory saboteurs

In a disturbing development which has not been widely covered in U.K. media, a British judge and jury have acquitted a group of activists who broke into an arms factory near Brighton at the time of last year’s conflict in Gaza, smashing equipment and causing around £180,000 of damage.

The activists used the “lawful excuse” defense – committing an offense to prevent what they say was a more serious crime because EDO was “complicit in war crimes.” (Jerusalem Post)

The court's decision gives cause for concern, as it suggests that other anti-Israel actions of this kind may be similarly tolerated in future, and that persons and institutions perceived to be supporting Israel may not receive protection under British law.

Update (July 9): The JC reports that the judge in the trial said of the raiding group’s leader that “The jury may feel his efforts investigating the company merit the George Cross."

Albats: US case "very plausible"

Via Washington Post:

Yevgenia Albats, editor of the independent New Times magazine, said talk of a conspiracy to poison bilateral relations was Russia's version of an official denial. "What else are they going to say? They caught these guys red-handed," she said. "You never acknowledge your own spies, because you don't want to support the foreign justice system in bringing charges."

Calling the case "very plausible," she asked why the authorities would organize such an elaborate operation to collect what seems to have been basic information. For example, she noted that two of the suspects appeared to have been targeting university professors who easily could have been invited to conferences in Russia.

"It's very strange. You pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to put these people through college, give them identities, to do what?" she said. "Why do governments spend this money on intelligence when journalists can do it better?"

Russian spy arrests in USA

The BBC reports that

Ten people have been arrested in the United States for allegedly spying for the Russian government, the US Department of Justice has said.

The IHT has more.

The Washington Post's coverage of the story is here.

The UK's Times newspaper notes that a fake British passport was used by one of the people arrested to help her to travel to and from Russia.

An eleventh suspected spy has been arrested in Cyprus.

4th anniversary of Schalit capture

Jerusalem Post:

From Jerusalem, to Rome, to New York, supporters of captive soldier Gilad Schalit on Thursday cried out for his release as they marked the eve of the fourth anniversary of his kidnapping.

In Rome, the lights of the Colosseum were turned off. So too, the lights around the Old City walls in Jerusalem.

Lighting up the darkness at the walls was a sign showing the number of days, 1,460, that Schalit had been held by Hamas in Gaza, along with the line, “This is the time I have spent in captivity.”

In New York, a flotilla of ships, called “The True Freedom Flotilla,” sailed from Pier 40 around the Statue of Liberty and past the buildings of the United Nations.

Addressing a crowd in Rome, Gilad’s father, Noam, asked the international community not to forget his son.

“As I stand here tonight, in the capital of Italy, Rome, which is one of the central, ancient and important cities in Europe and the civilized world, I call on the international community and the European one in particular not to forget Gilad,” said Noam.

Prague Watchdog closing

Prague Watchdog, the Prague-based North Caucasus human rights NGO and monitoring service, is closing down after 10 years of operation. In May this year, for reasons that are unknown to the site’s co-ordinator, the delivery of new Russian-language material stopped and has not been resumed. Andrei Babitsky, who was fulfilling the role of chief commissioning editor, appears no longer to be in charge of PW’s publishing, though he continues to be active as an editor and commentator at other Russian-language media outlets, including Radio Liberty’s Russian service.  

According to PW’s present coordinating editor, the site will continue to be accessible even though it is not updated, and its considerable volume of North-Caucasus-related information and resources will continue to be available to the general public.

British blinkers

Julie Burchill, on the curious but predictable attitude of British media to the flotilla crisis:

Not once did I hear a British interviewer ask any of the so-called secular radicals participating in the flotilla why they are allied with Islamic supremacists who subjugate women, persecute gays, oppress non-Islamic minorities and seek to impose Islam globally.

Shalev: Lebanese ships will be stopped

Israel's UN Ambassador Gabriela Shalev has said in a letter to Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council that the attempt by flotilla organizers to sail from Lebanon to Gaza could escalate tensions and affect peace and security in the region, the Lebanese portal Naharnet reports. The ambassador also said that Israel would exercise its right under international law to “use all necessary means” to prevent the ships from breaking the naval blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip.

Defending the defender

In the Times, José María Aznar writes that Israel is the West’s best ally in the fight against those who seek to destroy the West’s values and security:

Israel is our first line of defence in a turbulent region that is constantly at risk of descending into chaos; a region vital to our energy security owing to our overdependence on Middle Eastern oil; a region that forms the front line in the fight against extremism. If Israel goes down, we all go down.

New IHH flotilla to sail in late July

Via Ynetnews:

The next flotilla is due to sail in the second half of July, IHH said. The group invited the international media to inspect all goods on board before the convoy sails to "demonstrate their commitment to total transparency".

Israel says the IHH has links to Muslim militants, which the group denies.

Iranian ships heading for Gaza

Via Reuters:

Iran is sending aid ships to blockaded Gaza, state radio said on Monday -- a move likely to be considered provocative by Israel which accuses Tehran of arming the Palestinian enclave's Islamist rulers,

One ship left port on Sunday and another will depart by Friday, loaded with food, construction material and toys, the report said. "Until the end of (Israel's) Gaza blockade, Iran will continue to ship aid," said an official at Iran's Society for the Defense of the Palestinian Nation.

Russia: Iran sanctions won’t stop delivery of S-300s

Via Jerusalem Post/AP:

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko told journalists that the UN resolution does not apply to air-defense systems, with the exception of mobile missiles.

Cropped Reuters photos

On Sunday LGF  published another cropped Reuters photo, comparing it with the original. As the blog noted:

One picture cropped to remove a knife might be explained as incompetence or a simple mistake. But now we have two pictures from the “peace activists” that were cropped by someone at Reuters to remove knives in the hands of the activists, as they attempted to take soldiers hostage.

Reuters’ response:

The images in question were made available in Istanbul, and following normal editorial practice were prepared for dissemination which included cropping at the edges. When we realized that a dagger was inadvertently cropped from the images, Reuters immediately moved the original set, as well.

The strength of non-expansionism

The United States needs Israel, says Caroline Glick, writing in the Jerusalem Post. In fact, the country remains the US’s most important strategic asset in the Middle East region:

[CSIS analyst Anthony H.] Cordesman claims that Israel only advances US strategic interests when it works toward the creation of a Palestinian state. But this is wrong. To the extent that the two-state solution assumes that Israel must contract itself to within the indefensible 1949 cease-fire lines and allow a hostile Palestinian state allied with terrorist organizations to take power in the areas it vacates, the two-state solution is predicated on making it weak and empowering radicals.

In light of this, the two-state solution as presently constituted is antithetical to America’s most vital strategic interests in the Middle East.

In our times, when Jew hatred has become acceptable and strategic blindness and madness are presented as nuanced sophistication, it is essential to maintain a firm grip on the truth. And that truth is that love the Jews or hate us, the US’s alliance with Israel has been and remains America’s most cost-effective national security investment since World War II.

Gaza links - 4

IDF foils attack close to Gaza
Report: two Iranian ships to sail to Gaza
Turkish regime changes sides, West averts eyes
Poll shows U.S, voters support Israel in conflict

Gaza links - 3

Just Journalism has a survey of conflicting impressions of eye-witness accounts of the Mavi Marmara incident.

Caroline Glick examines the way in which Iran’s nuclear weapons program serves as a carrot to supplement the stick with which Iran forces the Arab world to do its bidding. (JP)

The IDF says that some 50 of the passengers aboard the Mavi Marmara were mercenaries, probably funded by elements within the Turkish government. (JP)

Sarah Honig on “Otto Weininger Syndrome” . (JP)

MV Rachel Corrie intercepted

The MV Rachel Corrie has been intercepted by the Israel navy approximately 55 km from the Gaza Strip, according to the Jerusalem Post. Earlier reports that the vessel had been boarded appear to have been incorrect.

Ynetnews reports that the ship’s crew have ignored a Navy request to stop. The Navy has now taken over the ship.

Gaza links - 2

The crew of the MV Rachel Corrie say they will continue sailing for Gaza.
Israel’s UK ambassador cancelled his appearance at the Hay on Wye festival in Britain. The UK lawyer Michael Mansfield QC said he believed Prime Minister Cameron should send British naval vessels to protect ships delivering aid to Gaza.
Leading officials of France, UK, Ireland and Belgium were quick to condemn Israel’s campaign on Monday, before video footage showed that the demonstrators aboard the Mavi Marmara were armed and that they violently attacked Israeli military personnel. The White House, however, refrained from criticizing Israel, and senior US officials have since defended Israel’s actions.
Michael J. Totten has the video.
Flotilla passengers tell IDF: "Go back to Auschwitz".

Gaza links

Some links and headlines from the media and blogosphere:

• The Irish-owned MV Rachel Corrie is still headed for Gaza.
• Turkish newspapers have reported that three of the four Turkish jihadis killed during the boarding of the Mavi Marmara by IDF troops had declared their readiness to become shaheeds, or martyrs.
• IDF footage of demonstrators aboard the Mavi Marmara preparing and initiating the armed confrontation.

• At Standpoint, Joshua Rozenberg has republished an IDF document which gives an assessment of the legality of Israel’s military operations off Gaza this week.
• US Vice President Joe Biden has said that Israel has the right to stop the ships bound for Gaza.
• The Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report is publishing intelligence digests and articles about the flotilla, which it says is largely composed of organizations tied to the GMB.
• The former commander of British forces in Afghanistan has said that Israeli troops should not be blamed for the deaths of activists on the Mavi Marmara.

Turkey's role in the Gaza conflict

Israeli sources say it appears likely that the demonstrators who used knives. clubs and other weapons to attack IDF soldiers aboard the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara are themselves Turkish nationals, and belong to an Islamist group connected with global jihadi networks. In fact, around 400 of the 700 people who sailed in the 6-vessel convoy were Turks. A recent TIP release notes that

The IHH (Insani Yardim Vakfi - “humanitarian relief fund”)…has provided financial support to Iran-backed Hamas and has ties to global jihadi networks and the Muslim Brotherhood – a global umbrella Islamic organization of which Hamas is a branch – as well as mujahideen groups in Afghanistan.

In 2006, a study conducted by the Danish Institute for International Studies showed that the IHH was involved in planning an al-Qaeda attack against Los Angeles International Airport in 1999. IHH reportedly acquired forged documents, enlisted operatives and delivered weapons to al-Qaeda in preparation for the attack, which was ultimately foiled.[6]

The Danish study also cites a French intelligence report which stated that in the mid-1990s the IHH sent a number of operatives into war zones in Muslim countries to get combat experience. The report said that IHH transferred money and “caches of firearms, knives and pre-fabricated explosives” to Muslim fighters in those countries.[7]

Israeli officials have expressed concern that Islamist groups that endanger Israeli national security now have considerable influence within the Free Gaza movement, the group that organized the flotilla. According to the group’s own mission statement, “We agree to adhere to the principles of nonviolence and nonviolent resistance in word and deed at all times.”[8]

6] “IHH, which plays a central role in organizing the flotilla to the Gaza Strip, is a Turkish humanitarian relief fund with a radical Islamic anti-Western orientation,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, May 26, 2010, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e105.htm

[7] “IHH, which plays a central role in organizing the flotilla to the Gaza Strip, is a Turkish humanitarian relief fund with a radical Islamic anti-Western orientation,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, May 26, 2010, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e105.htm

[8] “Our Mission,” Free Gaza Movement Web site, Jan. 30, 2009, http://www.freegaza.org/en/about-us/mission

[9] Wilson, Scott, “Israel says Free Gaza Movement poses threat to Jewish state,” The Washington Post, June 1, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/31/AR2010053103445.html

The release goes on to stress the links that are believed to exist between the IHH and Turkey’s ruling party, the AKP, observing that in recent years the Turkish government has moved away from cooperation with Israel and has adopted a less friendly stance on several issues, including a conciliatory approach to Iran on the question of sanctions and the Iranian nuclear program.

While in themselves the actions and statements of a self-styled humanitarian organization might not be thought to present a significant challenge to the security of other states, including Israel, the IHH group’s connections both with militant Islamists and with the Turkish government party do give considerable cause for concern. In particular, the news that the Turkish Navy is reported to be considering sending a naval escort for the next two boats carrying pro-Palestinian demonstrators presents the possibility that such an action could spark a major conflict between Turkey and Israel. That the Mavi Marmara incident was a deliberate provocation there seems little doubt – hopefully it did not mark the first stage in a planned series of escalations. Western peace activists who have joined the convoys need to be careful that their activities do not end in starting a regional war.

Update (4.25pm): Turkey’s foreign minister Ahmet Davutogu has said in Ankara that “it’s time calm replaces anger”.

Israel, Gaza and International Law

Standpoint magazine has published an authoritative analysis of Israel’s legal position under international law. The anonymous posting which forms the centre of Joshua Rozenberg’s piece:

1. A maritime blockade is in effect off the coast of Gaza. Such blockade has been imposed, as Israel is currently in a state of armed conflict with the Hamas regime that controls Gaza, which has repeatedly bombed civilian targets in Israel with weapons that have been smuggled into Gaza via the sea.

2. Maritime blockades are a legitimate and recognized measure under international law that may be implemented as part of an armed conflict at sea. (Examples: USA blockaded Cuba, UK blockaded The Falklands, the EU blockaded Yugoslavia)

3. A blockade may be imposed at sea, including in international waters, so long as it does not bar access to the ports and coasts of neutral States.

4. The naval manuals of several western countries, including the US and England recognize the maritime blockade as an effective naval measure and set forth the various criteria that make a blockade valid, including the requirement of give due notice of the existence of the blockade.

5. In this vein, it should be noted that Israel publicized the existence of the blockade and the precise coordinates of such by means of the accepted international professional maritime channels. Israel also provided appropriate notification to the affected governments and to the organizers of the Gaza protest flotilla. Moreover, in real time, the ships participating in the protest flotilla were warned repeatedly that a maritime blockade is in effect.

6. Here, it should be noted that under customary law, knowledge of the blockade may be presumed once a blockade has been declared and appropriate notification has been granted, as above.

7. Under international maritime law, when a maritime blockade is in effect, no boats can enter the blockaded area. That includes both civilian and enemy vessels.

8. A State may take action to enforce a blockade. Any vessel that violates or attempts to violate a maritime blockade may be captured or even attacked under international law. The US Commander's Handbook on the Law of Naval Operations sets forth that a vessel is considered to be in attempt to breach a blockade from the time the vessel leaves its port with the intention of evading the blockade.

9. Here we should note that the protesters indicated their clear intention to violate the blockade by means of written and oral statements. Moreover, the route of these vessels indicated their clear intention to violate the blockade in violation of international law.

10. Given the protesters explicit intention to violate the naval blockade, Israel exercised its right under international law to enforce the blockade. It should be noted that prior to undertaking enforcement measures, explicit warnings were relayed directly to the captains of the vessels, expressing Israel's intent to exercise its right to enforce the blockade.

11. Israel had attempted to take control of the vessels participating in the flotilla by peaceful means and in an orderly fashion in order to enforce the blockade. Given the large number of vessels participating in the flotilla, an operational decision was made to undertake measures to enforce the blockade a certain distance from the area of the blockade.

12. Israeli personnel attempting to enforce the blockade were met with violence by the protesters and acted in self defense to fend off such attacks.

The information war

Writing in the Jerusalem Post, Caroline Glick perceives a straight line that “runs between the anti-Israel resolution passed last Friday at the UN’s Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference and the Hamas flotilla”:

Israel is the target of a massive information war. For it to win this war, it needs to counter its enemies’ lies with the truth.

The NPT has been subverted by the very forces it was created to prevent from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organization ideologically indistinguishable from al-Qaida. International law requires all states and non-state actors to take active measures to defeat it.

Israel is the frontline of the free world. Its ability to defend itself and deter its foes is the single most important guarantee of international peace. A strong Israel is also the most potent and reliable guarantor of the US’s continued ability to project its power in the Middle East.

This is the unvarnished truth. It is also the beginning of a successful campaign to defang the massive coalition of nuclear proliferation- and terrorism-abettors aligned against Israel. But until our leaders finally recognize the nature of the war being waged against our country, these basic facts will remain ignored as we move from one stunning defeat to the next.

IDF soldiers attacked - 2

IDF soldiers attacked

An account of the attack is here.

Missing editor

Andrei Babitsky, Prague Watchdog’s Russian-language editor, has apparently gone missing somewhere in Russia. Sources at PW say that Babitsky’s absence shouldn’t give rise to concern, as he is probably also working for RFE/RL in some capacity, and has simply stopped replying to email. The situation is causing some problems for PW, however – no new material has appeared there since May 5.

Update: a new article (by Valery Dzutsev) has now appeared, though Babitsky has still not returned.

Russia planning pro-Western foreign policy

So a report in Russian Newsweek says…

Jamestown’s Roger McDermott has an analysis.

Medvedev, Chechnya and Hamas

Russian President Reaches Out to Hamas despite Links between Chechen and Palestinian Terror Groups

As indirect peace talks take off between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said this week that Iran-backed Hamas should play a role in the peace process.[1] Medvedev made the announcement May 12, a day after meeting in Damascus with Hamas political leader Khaled Meshal.[2]

Russia’s overtures to Hamas come despite Israel’s support for Russian counterterrorism operations against Chechen separatist groups.[3] Expressing disappointment over Russia’s behavior, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said, “Just as Israel unconditionally supported Russia in her struggle against Chechen terror, we expect equal treatment in our struggle against Hamas.”[4]

Chechen terrorists share some of the basic jihadist goals and characteristics of their Palestinian counterparts such as Hamas. For years, Chechnya-based terrorist groups have attacked Russian civilian and military targets, killing thousands. Similarly, Hamas and other Iran-backed Palestinian organizations launched a years-long campaign of bombings and rocket and missile attacks against Israelis. Carrying out suicide bombings against civilians is also a tactic common to both groups.[5]

Russia, along with the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, is a member of the Middle East Quartet, the international body involved in brokering a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians.[6] Russia is also part of the “P5+1,” the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany negotiating with Iran to prevent the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons.[7]

Iran trains, arms and funds Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by the European Union, the United States, Israel, Canada and Australia.[8] Russia, however, has not labeled Hamas a terrorist organization.[9]

Following is background on ties between Chechen and Palestinian terrorist groups.

• Iran-backed Hamas has expressed ideological solidarity with Chechen terrorists. For example, Hamas distributed a poster inside a propaganda CD juxtaposing headshots of former Chechen terrorist leaders Ibn al-Khattab and Shamil Basayev alongside those of former Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden.[10] Basayev claimed responsibility for the 2004 Beslan school massacre, in which 186 children and about 150 other hostages were killed.[11]

• Another image of Chechen terrorist leader Al-Khattab, killed by Russian authorities in 2002, appears on a CD that Hamas distributed. The text says of al-Khattab, “Oh hero, who disappeared from the land of jihad, your eyes covered with a tearful veil of dreams. Allah relieved you of [life in] a time when everything is upside down…”[12]

• A CD titled “The Russian Hell” that Hamas distributed at two West Bank universities and a Hamas-linked orphanage shows footage of fighting in Chechnya and a jihadist sermon.[13] Comments in the CD include a statement that “fire awaits [the Russian soldiers] in the next world, and the Chechens in this world,” and Chechen rebels are called “jihad warriors.”[14]

• The Israel Defense Forces in 2005 found a brochure supporting Chechen separatism titled “Chechnya: an excellent people and their hopes,” inside a Hamas “Islamic club” in the West Bank. The back of the brochure displays an image of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem above a picture of Chechen fighters, along with text that states, “From Al-Aqsa to Grozny [the capital of Chechnya], darkness disperses and dawn rises.” The brochure’s introduction encourages the Palestinians’ “brothers” in Chechnya to “follow the path of jihad.” The brochure also includes an article by a Hamas-affiliated professor of Islamic law justifying Chechen terrorism.[15]

• A jihadist Web site mainly focused on Palestinian militancy and likely produced by Hamas – “AqsaTube” – featured a video of the life of former Chechen terrorist leader al-Khattab. A Russian Internet company began hosting the site after it was removed by a French company that had previously hosted it.[16]

• Hamas’ official Web site posted a fatwa (religious edict) authored by a Chechen-Muslim cleric justifying suicide bombings alongside similar fatwas by Arab-Muslim clerics.[17]

• The spokesman of the Abu Rish Brigades, a Fatah splinter group that has collaborated with Hamas, said, “Our banner is jihad everywhere, even Chechnya. Our aim is to liberate every piece of land in Palestine, including what is now called Israel.”[18]

• Asbat al-Ansar, a Lebanon-based terrorist group connected with Palestinian terrorist Munir Maqdah who has said the group is ideologically similar to Hamas,[19] has dispatched fighters to Chechnya. In 2000, two terrorists from the group – one of whom was Palestinian and said he was “sacrificing himself for Chechnya”– attacked the Russian embassy in Beirut using rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), killing a Lebanese police officer.[20]

• At the beginning of the Second Intifada in 2000, Chechen terrorist leader Basayev offered to send 150 Chechen mujahedeen (holy warriors) to Palestine to assist with jihadist activities there. He subsequently offered to pay $1,000 to the families of Palestinian “martyrs.” Said Basayev, “The Sharia (Islamic law) requires us to assist those Muslims who are struggling to free the sacred places of Islam—the city of al-Quds [Jerusalem] and the al-Aqsa Mosque. Those belong to all Muslims, regardless of their nation or ethnic group. It is a clear duty of all Muslims to help the Palestinians." Basayev also said the Russian army “had Jews in military ranks both as soldiers and engineers.”[21] “We ask Allah to destroy the heartless Jews and their allies,” Basayev said.[22]

• Chechen separatists and Palestinian terrorists have at times shared common sources of funding. For example, in 2001 Egyptian authorities arrested a popular Muslim cleric who raised about $1 million distributed to various terrorist groups, including Hamas as well as Chechen fighters. Said a lawyer for another suspect in the case, “The government says this is not just for families or social aid, but was buying weapons for jihad, for Hamas and for Chechnya.”[23]

• In 2000, then-Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin likened the goals of Chechen separatists to Palestinian terrorists when he addressed a Hamas rally in Gaza in support of Chechen rebel groups. About 200 Hamas activists showed up to the demonstration. At about the same time, Israeli newspapers reported that Hamas had planned to bomb a Jerusalem high-rise apartment in an attempt to emulate a 1999 Chechen attack on a Moscow apartment building.[24]

---

Footnotes:

[1] Ravid, Barak, “Israel to Russia: Hamas is like the Chechen terrorists,” Haaretz, May 12, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-to-russia-hamas-is-like-the-chechen-terrorists-1.289918

[2] “Medvedev to Hamas: Work quickly for Shalit deal,” Haaretz, May 11, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/medvedev-to-hamas-work-quickly-for-shalit-deal-1.289668

[3] Bourtman, Ilya, “Putin and Russia's Middle Eastern Policy,” Middle East Review of International Affairs, June 2006, http://meria.idc.ac.il/journal/2006/issue2/jv10no2a1.html

[4] Ravid, Barak, “Israel to Russia: Hamas is like the Chechen terrorists,” Haaretz, May 12, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-to-russia-hamas-is-like-the-chechen-terrorists-1.289918

[5] “Hamas terrorist attacks,” Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, March 22, 2004, http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Terror+Groups/Hamas+terror+attacks+22-Mar-2004.htm; IDF Spokesperson’s Unit communiqué, Jan. 3, 2009; “Female suicide bombers blamed in Moscow subway attacks,” CNN, March 29, 2010, http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/03/29/russia.subway.explosion/index.html

[6] “Russia rebuffs Israeli rebuke over open relations with Hamas,” Reuters via Haaretz, May 13, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/russia-rebuffs-israeli-rebuke-over-open-relations-with-hamas-1.290241

[7] Sturdee, Simon, “World powers discuss Iran as sanctions pressure grows,” AFP, Sept. 2, 2009, http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g0V4v_KwXli-4rmoRMCcWFdszrMA

[8] "Council Decision," Council of the European Union, Dec. 21, 2005; "Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs)," U.S. Department of State Web site, Oct. 11, 2005, http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/fs/37191.htm; Wilson, Scott, "Hamas Sweeps Palestinian Elections, Complicating Peace Efforts in Mideast," The Washington Post , Jan. 27, 2006, accessed Jan. 18, 2006,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/26/AR2006012600372.html; Public Security and Emergency Preparedness Canada, National Security, Listed entities, accessed Jan. 18, 2007, http://www.psepc.gc.ca/prg/ns/le/cle-en.asp#hhi18; "Listing of Terrorist Organisations," Australian Government Web site, May 24, 2007, http://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/agd/www/nationalsecurity.nsf/AllDocs/95FB057CA3DECF30CA256FAB001F7FBD?OpenDocument

[9] “Terrorist Organization Profile: Hamas,” National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id=49, accessed May 14, 2010

[10] “Russian president invites Hamas to Moscow,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Feb. 10, 2006, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/html/final/eng/eng_n/html/hamas_moscow_e.htm

[11] Osborn, Andrew, “Russians claim killing of rebel Basayev, the Beslan butcher,” The Independent (UK), July 11, 2006; “Putin meets angry Beslan mothers,” BBC News, Sept. 2, 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4207112.stm

[12] “The Internet and terrorism: a week after AqsaTube was removed from the Internet, it returned in a similar format and with support from a Russian company,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Oct. 22, 2008, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/mt_e005.htm

[13] “Russian president invites Hamas to Moscow,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Feb. 10, 2006, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/html/final/eng/eng_n/html/hamas_moscow_e.htm

[14] Nahmias, Roee, “What Putin doesn’t know about Hamas,” YnetNews, Feb. 10, 2006, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3214119,00.html

[15] “Shamil Basayev, leader of the Chechen separatists and responsible for the Beslan school massacre, was killed by the Russian security forces.His organization is identified with Al-Qaeda and the global jihad. Hamas identifies with and is inspired by Chechen separatist ideology,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, July 19, 2006, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_ch_e.htm

[16] “The Internet and terrorism: a week after AqsaTube was removed from the Internet, it returned in a similar format and with support from a Russian company,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Oct. 22, 2008, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/mt_e005.htm; Thorold, Crispin, “Jihad website AqsaTube goes offline,” BBC News, Oct. 15, 2008, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7672162.stm

[17] “Hamas identifies with and supports Chechen and international Islamic terrorism on CDs found in the Palestinian Authority-administered territories. The CDs are distributed by Hamas to Palestinian youth in various educational institutions,” Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, September 2004, http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia//ENGLISH/GLOBAL%20JIHAD/PDF/SEP9_04.PDF

[18] Levitt, Matthew, “Putin's New Friends: Moscow Hosts Hamas,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, March 19, 2007, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/print.php?template=C06&CID=1038; “Terrorist Organization Profile: Abu al-Rish Brigades,” National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id=4664, accessed May 12, 2010

[19] Abedin, Mahan, “Ein Al-Hilweh: A fruitless search for al-Qaeda,” Asia Times Online, Jan. 7, 2010, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA07Ak02.html

[20] Murphy, Paul J. (2004), The wolves of Islam: Russia and the faces of Chechen terror, Dulles, Va.: Brassey’s Inc., p. 213; Fisk, Robert, “Chechen allies open fire on Russian embassy in Beirut,” The Independent (UK), Jan. 24, 2000, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/chechen-allies-open-fire-on-russian-embassy-in-beirut-727331.html

[21] McGregor, Andrew, “Distant Relations: Hamas and the Mujahideen of Chechnya,” The Jamestown Foundation, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=3166

[22] Riebling, Mark; Eddy, R.P., “Jihad@Work,” National Review Online, Oct. 24, 2002, http://old.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-riebling102402.asp

[23] Schneider, Howard, “Egypt Steps Up Prosecutions Of Fundraisers for Militants; Now in Military Court, Scholar May Face Death Penalty,” The Washington Post, Nov. 12, 2001, accessed via Lexis-Nexis

[24] Copans, Laurie, “Reports: Palestinian militants mimicked Chechen bombings in planned attack,” AP, Feb. 23, 2000, accessed via Lexis-Nexis; Bhattacharji, Preeti, “Backgrounder: Chechen Terrorism (Russia, Chechnya, Separatist),” Council on Foreign Relations, April 8, 2010, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9181/chechen_terrorism_russia_chechnya_separatist.html?breadcrumb=/publication/by_type/backgrounder

Europe, Nationalism and Shared Fate

The Global Crisis of Legitimacy

By George Friedman

This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR

The European financial crisis is moving to a new level. The Germans have finally consented to lead a bailout effort for Greece. The effort has angered the German public, which has acceded with sullen reluctance. It does not accept the idea that it is Germans’ responsibility to save Greeks from their own actions. The Greeks are enraged at the reluctance, having understood that membership in the European Union meant that Greece’s problems were Europe’s.

And this is not just a Greek matter. Geographically, the problem is the different levels of development of Mediterranean Europe versus Northern Europe. During the last generation, the Mediterranean countries have undergone major structural changes and economic development. They have also undergone the inevitable political tensions that rapid growth generates. As a result, their political and economic condition is substantially different from that of Northern Europe, whose development surge took place a generation before and whose political structure has come into alignment with its economic condition.
European Unity and Diversity

Northern and Southern Europe are very different places, as are the former Soviet satellites still recovering from decades of occupation. Even on this broad scale, Europe is thus an extraordinarily diverse portrait of economic, political and social conditions. The foundation of the European project was the idea that these nations could be combined into a single economic regime and that that economic regime would mature into a single united political entity. This was, on reflection, a rather extraordinary idea.

Europeans, of course, do not think of themselves as Mediterranean or Northern European. They think of themselves as Greek or Spanish, Danish or French. Europe is divided into nations, and for most Europeans, identification with their particular nation comes first. This is deeply embedded in European history. For the past two centuries, the European obsession has been the nation. First, the Europeans tried to separate their own nations from the transnational dynastic empires that had treated European nations as mere possessions of the Hapsburg, Bourbon or Romanov families. The history of Europe since the French Revolution was the emergence and resistance of the nation-state. Both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union attempted to create multinational states dominated by a single state. Both failed, and both were hated for the attempt.

There is a paradox in the European mindset. On the one hand, the recollection of the two world wars imbued Europeans with a deep mistrust of the national impulse. On the other hand, one of the reasons nationalism was distrusted was because of its tendency to make war on other nation-states and try to submerge their identities. Europe feared nationalism out of a very nationalist impulse.

The European Union was designed to create a European identity while retaining the nation-state. The problem was not in the principle, as it is possible for people to have multiple identities. For example, there is no tension between being an Iowan and an American. But there is a problem with the issue of shared fate. Iowans and Texans share a bond that transcends their respective local identities. Their national identity as Americans means that they share not only transcendent values but also fates. A crisis in Iowa is a crisis in the United States, and not one in a foreign country as far as Texans are concerned.

The Europeans tried to finesse this problem. There was to be a European identity, yet national identities would remain intact. They wrote a nearly 400-page-long constitution, an extraordinary length. But it was not really a constitution. Rather, it was a treaty that sought to reconcile the concept of Europe as a single entity while retaining the principle of national sovereignty that Europe had struggled with for centuries. At root, Europe’s dilemma was no different from the American dilemma — only the Ame

rican transcended being a Virginian. One could be a Virginian, but Virginia shared the fate of New York, and did so irrevocably. The Europeans could not state this unequivocally as they either did not believe it or lacked the ability to militarily impress the belief upon the rest of Europe. So they tried to finesse it in long, complex and ultimately opaque systems of governance that ultimately left the nations of Europe with their sovereignty intact.

When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, there was no question among the Germans that East and West Germany would be united. Nor were serious questions raised that the cost of economically and socially reviving East Germany would be borne by West Germany. Germany was a single country that history had divided, and when history allowed them to be reunited, Germans would share the burdens. Ever since the 19th century, when Germany began to conceive of itself as one country, there was an idea that to be a German meant to share a single fate and burdens.

This was the same for the rest of Europe that organized itself into nation-states, where the individual identified his fate with the fate of the nation. For a Pole or an Irishman, the fate of his country was part of his fate. But a Pole was not an Irishman and an Irishman was not a Pole. They might share interests, but not fates. The nation is the place of tradition, language and culture — all of the things that, for better or worse, define who you are. The nation is the place where an economic crisis is inescapably part of your life.

When the Greek financial crisis emerged, other Europeans asked the simple question, “What has this to do with me?” From their point of view, the Greeks were foreigners. They spoke a different language, had a different culture, shared a different history. The Germans might be affected by the crisis — German banks held Greek debt — but the Germans were not Greeks, and they did not share the Greeks’ fate. And this was not just the view of Germany, the economic leader of Europe, by any means.

In the past, Mexico has had several economic crises in which the United States intervened to stabilize Mexico. This was done because it was in the American interest to do so, not because the United States and Mexico were one country. So, too, in Europe: The bailout of Greece is designed not because Greece is part of Europe, but because it is in the rest of Europe’s interest to bail Greece out. But the heart of the matter is that Greece is a foreign country.
The Question of European Identity

During the generation of prosperity between the early 1990s and 2008, the question of European identity and national identity really did not arise. Being a European was completely compatible with being a Greek. Prosperity meant there was no choice to make. Economic crisis meant that choices had to be made, between the interests of Europe, the interests of Germany and the interests of Greece, as they were no longer the same. What happened was not a European solution, but a series of national calculations on self-interest; it was a negotiation between foreign countries, not a European solution growing organically from the recognition of a single, shared fate.

Ultimately, Europe was an abstraction. The nation-state was real. We could see this earliest and best not in the economic arena, but in the area of foreign policy and national defense. The Europeans as a whole never managed to develop either. The foreign policies of the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland were quite different and in many ways at odds. And war, even more than economics, is the sphere in which nations endure the greatest pain and risk. None of the European nations was prepared to abandon national sovereignty in this area, meaning no country was prepared to put the bulk of its armed forces under the command of a European government — nor were they prepared to cooperate in defense matters unless it was in their interest.

The unwillingness of the Europeans to transfer sovereignty in foreign and defense matters to the European Parliament and a European president was the clearest sign that the Europeans had not managed to reconcile European and national identity. Europeans knew that when it came down to it, the nation mattered more than Europe. And that understanding, under the pressure of crisis, has emerged in economics as well. When there is danger, your fate rests with your country.

The European experiment originated as a recoil from the ultranationalism of the first half of the 20th century. It was intended to solve the problem of war in Europe. But the problem of nationalism is that not only is it more resilient than the solution, it also derives from the deepest impulses of the Enlightenment. The idea of democracy and of national self-determination grew up as part of a single fabric. In taking away national self-determination, the European experiment seemed to be threatening the foundation of modern Europe.

There was another impulse behind the idea of Europe. Most of the European nations, individually, were regional powers at best, unable to operate globally. They were therefore weaker than the United States. Europe united would not only be able to operate globally, it would be the equal of the United States. If the nation-states of Europe were no longer great individually, Europe as a whole could be. Embedded in the idea of Europe, particularly in the Gaullist view of it, was the idea of Europe as a whole regaining its place in the world, the place it lost after two world wars.

That clearly is not going to happen. There is no European foreign and defense policy, no European army, no European commander in chief. There is not even a common banking or budgetary policy (which cuts to the heart of today’s crisis). Europe will not counterbalance the United States because, in the end, Europeans do not share a common vision of Europe, a common interest in the world or a mutual trust, much less a common conception of exactly what counterbalancing the United States would mean. Each nation wants to control its own fate so as not to be drawn back into the ultranationalism of a Germany in the 1930s and 1940s or the indifference to nationalism of the Hapsburg Empire. The Europeans like their nations and want to retain them. After all, the nation is who they actually are.

That means that they approach the financial crisis of Mediterranean Europe in a national, as opposed to European, fashion. Both those in trouble and those who might help calculate their moves not as Europeans but as Germans or Greeks. The question, then, is simple: Given that Europe never came together in terms of identity, and given that the economic crisis is elevating national interest well over European interest, where does this all wind up?

The European Union is an association — at most an alliance — and not a transnational state. There was an idea of making it such a state, but that idea failed a while ago. As an alliance, it is a system of relationships among sovereign states. They participate in it to the extent that it suits their self-interest — or fail to participate when they please.

In the end, what we have learned is that Europe is not a country. It is a region, and in this region there are nations and these nations are comprised of people united by shared history and shared fates. The other nations of Europe may pose problems for these people, but in the end, they share neither a common moral commitment nor a common fate.

This means that nationalism is not dead in Europe, and neither is history. And the complacency with which Europeans have faced their future, particularly when it has concerned geopolitical tensions within Europe, might well prove premature. Europe is Europe, and its history cannot be dismissed as obsolete, much less over.

Medvedev calls USSR "totalitarian"

The Telegraph reports that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has launched an outspoken attack on the USSR, calling it "totalitarian" and criticizing its human rights record. The text of the Izvestia interview can be read in Russian here. Money quote:

Если говорить прямо, тот режим, который сложился в СССР, иначе как тоталитарным назвать нельзя. К сожалению, это был режим, при котором подавлялись элементарные права и свободы. И не только применительно к своим людям (часть из которых после войны, будучи победителями, переехала в лагеря). Так было и в других странах соцлагеря тоже. И, конечно, из истории это не вычеркнуть.

Taking Liberty

Some observers who regularly seek out sources of news about Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia may have been puzzled in recent years by certain changes that seem to have taken place in the structure, editorial stance and publications of the organization known as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Ted Lipien has some interesting and disquieting revelations of what may lie behind those changes.

NYC events

US studies bomb evidence from New York's Times Square (BBC)

Iranian President on his way to New York for Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty conference (RIA Novosti)

A hard choice

In Commentary, James Kirchick laments how backing for an authoritarian leader in Russia's backyard may have cost the U.S. support from a natural ally in the war against terror. Excerpt:

the simple fact is that the war against the Taliban would be made immeasurably more difficult were the Manas air base to close. Insofar as the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan would be a disaster for the people of that country and present a haven for al-Qaeda, ensuring a stable government there is not just an American concern but also a global one. And Bishkek has its own national interests in this realm as well. In the immediate years prior to 9/11, militants from the Islamist Movement of Uzbekistan, a terrorist group sheltered by the Taliban, launched multiple attacks into southern Kyrgyzstan. That doesn't mean that the domestic problems of Kyrgyzstan are not important. But fixing them (something that is largely the responsibility of the Kyrgyz people themselves and beyond the seemingly awesome powers of the United States) cannot come at the expense of eliminating a vital supply line to Afghanistan.

Hat tip: Kejda Gjermani

Interview with Akhmed Zakayev

Excerpt:

the worst part of it is not who Putin is, or what he does, the worst part of it is that this person, with all his cruelty and his anti-national policy, meets a need of Russian society. That is the really depressing thing. It is only now that some glimmer of understanding has started to appear – a glimmer of understanding about what this man is doing to Russians, to Russia, to the Russian state. Maybe something will start changing now. But, unfortunately, to this day he has met a need of Russian society – the ratings, even if they were exaggerated, show this. The self-censorship that journalists have subjected themselves to...Of course, it is fear - it cannot be explained otherwise. But the Russian public cannot cope on their own with this phenomenon, with Putinism. And the West as usual is not ready to help or even to give moral support to those who are trying to oppose this phenomenon. There is nothing new in this either – it was the same in Soviet times too. The West strengthened Stalin, and the regimes that followed were also supported by the West. And today with this oil and gas… Europe is always in need of something. It will always need something from Russia. But the thing is that as long as they are going to play along to the tune of these regimes and give them nourishment, the problems Europe has, instead of being resolved, will only become more acute. This is something the West does not understand. As long as the problem of the Russian regime is not solved, the problems in other parts of the world will not be solved either – be they in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, with Al-Qaida or in the North Caucasus.

Then and now

The Chechens knew it was not in their interests to carry out any terrorist attacks. Public opinion was on their side, and public opinion, both Russian and international, was more valuable to them than two or three hundred lives abruptly cut short. That was why the Chechens could not have been behind the terrorist attacks of September 1999. And the Chechens must be given credit for always denying their involvement in these bombings. Here is what Ilyas Akhmadov, minister of foreign affairs in Aslan Maskhadov’s government, had to say on that point:

Question: In France you talk as though everybody knows that the terrorist attacks in Moscow and Volgodonsk were set up by the Russian secret services... Do you have any proof?

Answer: "Of course. Throughout the last war, we never showed the slightest inclination for that sort of thing. But if it had been organized by Basaev or Khattab, I can assure you that they wouldn’t have been shy about admitting it to Russia. What’s more, everybody knows that the failed bombing in Ryazan was organized by the FSB...I myself served in the army as a demolition officer at a military proving ground, and I know perfectly well what a great difference there is between an explosive and sugar.”

Here is the opinion of another interested party with whom it is hard to disagree, the Chechen minister of defense and commander of the presidential guard, Magomed Khambiev:

“Now for the explosions in Moscow. Why are the Chechens not committing acts of terrorism now, when our people are being annihilated? Why did the Russian authorities pay no attention to the hexogene incident in Ryazan, when the police had detained a member of the secret services with this explosive? There’s not a single piece of evidence for the so-called Chechen connection in these bombings. And the bombings were least of all in the interest of the Chechens. But what is hidden will certainly be revealed. I assure you that the perpetrators and planners of the bombings in Moscow will become known, when there’s a change of political regime in the Kremlin. Because those who ordered the bombings should be sought in the corridors of the Kremlin. These bombings were necessary in order to start the war, in order to distract the attention of Russians and the whole world from the scandals and dirty intrigues going on in the Kremlin.”

Suspicions arose that the bombings were being carried out by people attempting to force the government to declare a state of emergency and cancel the elections. A number of politicians rejected the idea: “I don’t agree with the statements of certain analysts who connect this series of terrorist attacks with somebody’s intentions to declare a state of emergency in Russia and cancel the elections to the State Duma,”declared former Russian minister of the interior Kulikov in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta on September 11. The Chechens could not have had any interest in presidential elections or the declaration of a state of emergency in Russia. In 1996, it was the Korzhakov-Barsukov-Soskovets group and the secret services standing behind them that supported the cancellation of the election. So who was attempting to provoke the declaration of a state of emergency in 1999?

- Alexander Litvinenko, Blowing up Russia, pp. 87-88.

Versions - 4

- Questions are being raised about the authenticity of the recently-published video statement by Dokka Umarov.

A Georgian website has published an analysis of the interview which suggests that it may be a fake, an attempt to "play up" to the Kremlin. Though it could also be, the article points out, that at least some of the inconsistencies and oddities are caused by the film's poor technical quality. But the author tends towards the former view. 

Norbert Strade has some details.

Versions - 3

- The propagandist Kavkaz Center website, thought by some observers to be a disinformation centre run with the help of Russia's special services, has published a video of "Caucasus Emirate" leader Dokka Umarov claiming responsibility for the March 29 Moscow subway bombings. The video is evidently genuine.

Versions - 2

- A self-declared spokesman for Caucasus Emirate leader Dokka Umarov has issued a statement dissociating the emirate from the March 29 Moscow bombings and claiming that they were the work of the Russian special services.

- At least 12 people have been killed by two bombings in the town of Kizlyar in the Russian federal republic of Dagestan. One of the alleged bombers is said to have been a man dressed as a policeman.

The "Black Widow" stories

As Norbert Strade has pointed out, the March 29 bomb attacks on the Moscow subway, and their aftermath, have many features in common with the bomb blasts that were frequent in Russia during the mid-2000s:

- The 2003 attack on a rock concert on the Tushino airfield. Bombs exploded in two waste baskets, according to witnesses. The Russian authorities blamed female suicide bombers and "found" their passports.

- Also 2003, a car was blown up next to the "National Hotel" (a well-known mafia joint). After a while, the story was spun into a "female suicide bomber" case, and again, they "found" a passport.

- In 2004, two bomb explosions in the Moscow metro. It took the authorities several days to make up a story about a Caucasian suicide bomber in the first case, while the witness accounts went in many different directions and the established facts pointed at a criminal connection . In the second attack, they again "found" the remains and the passport of a female suicide bomber.

Btw., passports have a remarkable ability to survive terrorist bomb explosions.

- Also in 2004, the bomb explosions in two airplanes in connection with the Beslan hostage taking (claimed by Shamil Basayev) were highly suspect. In spite of the fact that their own investigation had stated that the airplanes were blown up by bombs placed in the baggage compartment, the Russian authorities continued their "black widow" stories. And they had to tweak their version several times, until it had become completely comical (two "black widows" - apparently dressed up to the act - had bribed their way into both planes and then simultaneously,in mid-air, blown up the bombs in the baggage with remote controls - what gives...).

Not to forget, while there is a serious lack of hard evidence linking North Caucasian suicide bombers to the mentioned attacks, one shouldn't forget how FSB officers were caught red-handed trying to blow up an apartment building in 1999.  

To this it might be added that at least one of the apparent motives for the murder of the ex-KGB and ex-FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko was his account of the last-mentioned incident from an insider's point of view.

It seems that in Russia's war on terror little has altered in the space of 10 years. Even the rhetoric is unchanged. Today, Vladimir Putin said: "We know that in this case they are hiding on the bottom, but it is now a a matter of honour for our law enforcement officers to winkle them out from the bottom of the sewer into the light of day" (quoted from ITAR-TASS).  Putin first used the "sewer" imagery in relation to Chechen terrorists back in 2000 (which was also the year of the first suicide bombing in Russia), but has not re-used it until now. 

Versions

Some points to consider in relation to yesterday's bombing attacks on the Moscow subway.

- Almost without exception, Western media accepted at face value the official statements by Russia's FSB and other agencies, including the terminology that was used in them. The existence of a "Black Widows" organization dedicated to obtaining revenge for the deaths of slain Islamist insurgents was also treated in some reports almost as an established fact, even though there is little independent evidence to support it.

- The alleged involvement of female suicide bombers - in particular, the "Black Widows" - was a feature of Russian media coverage and official statements (notably the FSB) following earlier terror attacks in Russia, particularly at Nord-Ost and Beslan. In the past, many commentators both in Russia and abroad drew attention to the fact that the "Black Widows" scenario, with its dramatic and even theatrical elements, does not look particularly convincing on close examination. For one thing, among North Caucasus Islamic insurgents shahid or "martyr" operations are usually carried out by men.

- A number of Russian analysts have suggested it is unlikely that the motive for the attacks was revenge for the FSB's recent killing of Islamist leaders including Anzor Astemirov and Alexander Tikhomirov ("Said Buryatsky").  Writing in Yezhednevny Zhurnal, Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan point out that the attacks of March 29 would have taken a great of time to plan and prepare, and are thus unlikely to have been a direct response to recent events.

- As long ago as early July 2009 Caucasus Emirate "amir" Dokka Umarov gave a telephone interview to the Czech-based NGO Prague Watchdog in which he suggested that the Emirate's forces would begin to target Russian civilians beyond the North Caucasus region.

- Yesterday's attacks were the second suicide bombing in Russia this year, and the 15th since the start of 2009.

- No one has so far claimed responsibility for the March 29 attacks.

Independent?

Robert Peston takes a look at the new owners of the UK's Independent newspaper.

Anti-Putin manifesto

RFE/RL staffers and Kremlin watchers Brian Whitmore and Robert Coalson at The Power Vertical have posted a translation of The Anti-Putin Manifesto, though cynics see the document as another "Surkov initiative", aimed at "identifying and taking under control the bravest dissidents against the regime".

Collective security?

Four German defence experts have published an open letter in Der Spiegel, calling for Russia's eventual accession to NATO.

Marko Mihkelson has some comments.

Said Buryatsky "killed"

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6232K5.htm

All aboard

Jamestown's Andrew McGregor has published a study of the use of armoured trains in the North Caucasus conflict:

First used for such purposes in the American Civil War, armored trains and the tactics associated with their use were most fully developed in the vast expanses of Russia, where they were used in large numbers in World War One, the Red-White Civil War of 1917-22 (including extensive operations in the Caucasus), the Second World War and the Sino-Soviet border conflict of the 1960’s. More recently, Russian armored trains were deployed to secure railway lines against Azeri nationalists during the 1990 Soviet military intervention in Baku. Now Russia’s defense ministry has announced the return of armored trains for use against Islamist insurgents in the North Caucasus.

Outlawing the Emirate

Valery Dzutsev has some interesting insights on the Kremlin's recent decision to outlaw the shadowy so-called "Caucasus Emirate" organization which apparently controls the movements and actions of jihadist insurgents throughout the North Caucasus region. The decision came into force on February 25. Why, some commentators wondered, has it taken Moscow two years to proscribe the Emirate?

Avraam Shmulevich, a commentator on the North Caucasus, ridiculed the court’s decision as it estimated the number of insurgents “from 50 to 1,500.” He wrote: “If, because of 50 or even 1,500 bandits, huge territories, whole federal districts are redrawn [a reference to the recent creation of the North Caucasus Federal District], these [militants] are cyborg-terminators, each of whom is worth 10,000 federal soldiers” (www.apn.ru, February 11).

However, on February 25, the Russian Prosecutor General’s office published a short notice about outlawing the Emirate that might shed some light on the reasons for the Supreme Court’s decision. According to the prosecutors, recognizing the organization as terrorist allows the law enforcement agencies to prosecute not only the active militants who launch the attacks, but also terrorists’ accomplices and ideologues, who act in support of the organization, including providing “informational support.” The announcement by the Prosecutor General’s Office promised that supporters of the Caucasus Emirate would be subject to anti-extremism legislation (www.genproc.gov.ru, February 25). 

I'll add the link to Dzutsev's article when it appears online. Update: it's here.

Tymoshenko: Ukraine moving toward European integration

Via Ukraine National Radio:

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/index.php?id=148&listid=112434

Letter to Le Monde

Via Rights in Russia:

The Russian authors of an article published in the French newspaper Le Monde write: "While European leaders proudly proclaim the beginning of a new era of cooperation with Russia, inside the country journalists, democracy advocates and dissidents are subjected to ever greater pressure."

The article was signed by Elena Bonner-Sakharova, Konstantin Borovoi, Vladimir Bukovsky, Natalia Gorbanevskaya, Andrei Illarionov, Garry Kasparov, Sergei Kovalev, Andrei Mironov, Andrei Nekrasov, Valeria Novodvorskaya, Oleg Panfilov, Grigory Pasko, Leonid Pliushch and Aleksander Podrabinek, reports Newsru.com citing InoPressa.

The authors write: "Journalists are being harassed when they criticize the government and criminal prosecution is not the greatest risk faced by those who do not "inform" public opinion in a "patriotic" manner. In 2009, about a dozen journalists, human rights defenders and members of the political opposition were killed."

The government of Vladimir Putin, having shut the mouths of those who criticize its policies in the Caucasus, has now taken up with those who are doing this abroad, especially if they dare to speak in Russian, the authors note. These attacks are supported in Europe itself, the authors declare, and point to the case of the First Caucasian TV channel, whose broadcasts to Russia were terminated by the European company Eutelsat.
"Capitulating to the dictates of Moscow, Eutelsat is sending a clear message: a Russian-language television company that does not support the Kremlin's line will not be allowed to broadcast in the Russian Federation - even if this company is located outside Russian borders, and even if it has a signed contract with a European broadcaster," the authors note.
And the case of the First Caucasian is not unique, the article goes on to say. "Putin’s grand project of strengthening the "vertical of power" within the country, and returning to military imperialism in foreign policy, is fuelled by the connivance and complicity of some of the Europeans," the authors say.
Thus, the French government intends to sell Russia one or more Mistral helicopter carriers, and yet scarcely a year has passed since Russian tanks, as the signatories say, "occupied part of Georgia." They recall how NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that in such circumstances the co-operation that had existed hitherto with Russia was impossible.

Russian troops still remain in Georgia, yet NATO says it intends to strengthen its relations with the Putin regime, the article continues.

"While Moscow muzzles opposition media, eliminates dissenting journalists and intimidates its neighbours, European leaders have not been silent: they speak out for closer ties with the Russian government," the authors of the article write, expressing the belief that these leaders should stand up for freedom of speech and opposition media.

First of all, they should "remind European companies that they must not become instruments of Putin's censorship." European leaders, the signatories are convinced, must also show that “at the beginning of the XXI century a country cannot occupy the territory of other states with impunity.”

The human rights defenders conclude that European leaders must take a tough stance, and not sell arms to Russia, because "what is at issue is not only the freedom of Russian citizens and of Russia’s neighbouring countries, but the conscience and honour of Europe."

Tymoshenko 'to boycott inauguration'

Yulia Tymoshenko will not attend the presidential inauguration of Viktor Yanukovych on February 25, and will continue to hold the office of Ukraine's prime minister, Unian reports, citing information from BYuT supporters. 

Tymoshenko demands third round of elections

Ukraine's prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has filed a lawsuit with Ukraine's Supreme Administrative Court, alleging electoral fraud and demanding a third round of presidential elections. (UNIAN)

Chechen ghosts - 2

The BBC's Frank Gardner has once again invoked the "Chechen ghosts" in his latest video dispatch from "Operation Moshtarak", which contains references to insurgents from Chechnya. Although the video is not on the BBC's website, it repeats allegations from Gardner's earlier reports, such as this one from October 2009 (excerpt):

The overall picture is further confused because some Pakistani officials erroneously assume that Islamic fighters from other countries - such as Chechnya - are from Uzbekistan. 

While it's perfectly possible that some of the foreign fighters in the region are Chechen, it would be good to see some proof or demonstration of this by the BBC - otherwise, the reports merely look either Kremlin-influenced or Kremlin-supporting.

Chechen ghosts

Tymoshenko will not resign

Ukraine's prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko has no plans to step down from her post, BYuT MP Valery Pisarenko told Ekho Moskvy radio today. (gazeta.ru)

Kadyrov drops suits

Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov has dropped his lawsuits against a number of Russian human rights defenders, writes Michael Schwirtz in the New York Times.

Recount underway in Ukraine

With 100% of the votes in Sunday's presidential run-off now counted, Viktor Yanukovych has only a slender margin of victory over his rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, who is refusing to concede and alleging that some of the results are fraudulent. Reuters reports that votes are being recounted in several districts of Ukraine.

Tymoshenko "defiant"

According to Russian and Ukrainian news sources, including Newsru.com and Newsru.ua, Yulia Tymoshenko is refusing to acknowledge the victory of Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential run-off and is preparing to contest the result in Ukraine's courts. Possible scenarios include a third round of elections.

OSCE satisfied with Ukraine election

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has declared itself satisfied with the presidential run-off vote in Ukraine, and has urged Yulia Tymoshenko to concede defeat, which so far she has refused to do, Reuters reports.

Update: political analysts in Ukraine and Russia are speculating that Tymoshenko will "bargain" to retain her post as prime minister in a new government.

No rights for terrorists

A senior official at Amnesty International, Gita Sahgal, has gone public and has openly accused the human rights organization of collaborating with terrorist suspects. In the Sunday Times, Richard Kerbaj writes that Sahgal has taken this step because she feels that Amnesty has ignored warnings about the involvement of a prominent British Islamist, Moazzam Begg, in Amnesty's "Counter Terror with Justice" campaign:

“I believe the campaign fundamentally damages Amnesty International’s integrity and, more importantly, constitutes a threat to human rights,” Sahgal wrote in an email to the organisation’s leaders on January 30. “To be appearing on platforms with Britain’s most famous supporter of the Taliban, whom we treat as a human rights defender, is a gross error of judgment.”

Gita Sahgal has been suspended from her post at Amnesty.

The Islamist tactic of embarrassing and isolating human rights organizations by methods that include infiltration and false propaganda is not a new one. In Eastern Europe organizations like Prague Watchdog, which monitors human rights in Russia's North Caucasus, have long tolerated the unauthorized appropriation of their material by jihadist websites which republish it without attribution, and try forcibly to establish an association in this way. While Prague Watchdog has not yet been infiltrated, it is the object of virulent attacks by sites like Kavkaz Center, which seek to weaken its influence and harm its reputation.

Ann Clwyd on Iraq

Almost ignored by the mainstream UK press and TV, which had earlier devoted much air time and column space to Clare Short, the testimony of UK human rights envoy Ann Clwyd to the Chiilcot Inquiry gives a picture of the genesis of contemporary Iraq that is rather different from the one propounded by the critics of Tony Blair's policy who are currently so vociferous in the British media. For one thing, unlike many of the media "opinion-formers", Clwyd obviously knows Iraq and cares about its civilian population, especially the Kurds among whom she has lived and worked at intervals for many years. Instead of focusing on issues from the past, she is concerned for the present and the future of the fledgling democracy that has emerged from years of brutal dictatorship - and like Iraqis themselves she sees an improvement. On police training, for example, she has this to say:

Obviously we have been helping through our police training, through our training of judges --

BARONESS USHA PRASHAR: When you say "our police training" -- I was going to come to that -- what sort of support have you been giving to them on police training? Because the evidence we have had shows that our kind of model is not necessarily relevant.

RT HON ANN CLWYD MP: They have never actually said that in my hearing. I haven't heard that from the Iraqis. In fact, they want more of the British. They have always said, I have to say, right from the beginning, you know, "The British understand us. We would like more of the British to come here, and, you know, we don't want you  to go away. We would like more help from you".  That's why they can't understand Inquiries like this. The Iraqis always say to me, you know -- because weapons of mass destruction was Saddam -- "Why are you still operating in this area? What we need is your help and your attention", and obviously the Iraqis can pay for a lot of things  themselves now, but nevertheless they appreciate the guidance that we can give them and we have had police trainers there. We have also had them in round tables. 

Ann Clwyd's testimony can be viewed here (scroll down to Video 2), and the transcript is here (pdf). Via Harry's Place

Saving Obama

Daniel Pipes, writing in the Jerusalem Post, has a suggestion for a way to save the Obama presidency.

English antisemitism

In an excerpt from his book Trials of the Diaspora, published in Times Online, Anthony Julius describes the subtle nature of a discrimination that operates "by stealth, by tacit understandings and limited exclusions."

"A cesspit of Islamists"

England is "a cesspit of Islamists", according to the Nobel prizewinning author Wole Soyinka.

See also: US: Britain is an al-Qaeda hub

Censoring the unsayable

In her Spectator blog, Melanie Phillips takes issue with a new study which claims that negative portrayals of Muslims in the British media are leading to a growth in hate crime:

The view that Islamists who, for tactical reasons alone, oppose al Qaeda are not a threat to Britain -- and should indeed be treated as allies against al Qaeda -- is one of the most lethal mistakes that has been made by the British counter-terror world.  One example of such egregious establishment wrong-headedness that I cite in Londonistan is in fact one of the authors of this report, Robert Lambert. A former officer in the Metropolitan Police Counter-Terror Command, who until 2008 ran the Metropolitan Police Muslim Contact Unit, Lambert told a conference organised by the Danish police that terrorism could not be fought by contact with moderate Muslims but through partnerships with the Salafists (radical Islamists) – two of whom were at one stage at least actually officers in his own police department. I wrote:

Lambert believed that this would enable the police to understand the way extremists thought before they committed any acts of terror. But it surely goes without saying that a Salafist officer, who is committed to the overthrow of the west and its replacement by an Islamic society, poses a security risk of the first order. For a police counter-terrorism specialist to be promoting this situation beggars belief.

Now Lambert has co-authored this study which claims that identifying such Islamists as extremists is to incite attacks upon British Muslims. But just look at the organisation behind this study, the European Muslim Research Centre. On its advisory board sit Anas Altikriti of the Muslim Association of Britain, which supports Hamas, and Mohamed Abdul Bari of the Muslim Council of Britain, which supports the Islamisation of Britain and which has a number of Islamist affiliates.  The study also says it drew its information from, amongst others, the Muslim Safety Forum, Islamic Human Rights Commission, Muslim Public Affairs Committee (MPAC) UK, the Federation of Islamic Student Societies and the Muslim Council of Britain – all of which are Islamist fronts.

Son of the Caucasus

Kavkazskii uzel notes that on January 29 events were held in a number of Caucasian republics and regions, including Armenia, Azerbaijan and Krasnodarsky Krai to mark the 150th anniversary of the birth of Anton Chekhov. The most extensive celebrations were held in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, the writer's birthplace, with more events to follow throughout 2010.