Political Pipeline - II

Writing in Kommersant, Natalya Gevorkian analyses what she calls a modern replica of the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact:

He made them an offer they couldn't refuse. And that is the end of the story about joint European interests, about new and old Europe, about Putin's authoritarian regime and the young democracies. The whole of that story fits into the folder containing the contract for the building of a gas pipeline that goes along the bottom of Baltic Sea and bypasses young Europe. It goes to good old Germany.

"One cannot deny Moscow the beauty of the maneuver," Gevorkian comments, "and cannot deny Germany the ability to get the profit."

Of course, the profit won. It's nothing personal - just business. However, it's well known that there is no business without politics and vice versa. Russia not only struck a profitable agreement, but also punished its former republics, which are oriented to the West. You boys wanted to make plans about how to survive without Russian energy resources? Did you discuss different projects? Did you want to connect the Baltic Sea with the Caspian Sea? Well, now you can live without us. Let your West help you. But it is doubtful that it will. You have revolutions, and they're pragmatic folk in the West. All they care about is debit, credit and profit margin. Alternative gas pipes that bypass unruly countries and lead directly to the West will allow Russia to turn the gas into a tool of direct pressure on the post-Soviet space. This gas can be shut down any time -- depending on the political situation and without the risk of interrupting the supply to old Europe. I have no doubts that Russia, in actuality, has started a geopolitical project that will increase its influence on the post-Soviet space. If another Asian project were to be added to the European one, providing oil to China through the above-ground pipe, that would lessen China's dependence on the U.S. If that were to happen, then the idea of restoring Russian power would cease to be a pipedream.

The Kremlin has made a gamble on energy resources as an instrument of influence. Of course, it's not a nuclear threat, like it used to be during the Soviet Union. However, is there a risk of Europe becoming an energy junky from the Russian pipe? While the Kremlin is being and will continue to be controlled by former officers of the Soviet intelligence service, such risk exists. The gas project signed by Germany it is a project of the current regime, which hardly could be called a democratic one. And this is the risk. If the Kremlin were to have another regime, this agreement would not be signed - the relationship in the post-Soviet space would be built in a different manner.

I personally think that by entering into the project of "gas bypassing Baltic countries and Poland," Germany has lost any right to criticize the Kremlin, even if Putin were to be elected for five more terms. Gas and oil pipelines always end up with politics. Thus, Germany made with Russia not only economical, but a political agreement as well. And reaping economic benefits, Berlin helped Putin gain political points. He also won over the part of Europe which still cannot forget "Big Brother."

(Via Marius)

See also in this blog: Political Pipeline