Monday, March 27, 2006

Forecasts and Prognoses

UNIAN presents a panel of six political analysts giving their views on the likely outcome of the Ukrainian elections. In general, all the analysts consider that the most probable result will be an Orange coalition. The prominent Volodymyr Polokhalo - a member of Tymoshenko's bloc - expresses the view that "a mixed, symbiotic version of coalition" will lead to "the creation of an illegitimate or semi-legitimate majority", and as a result to the creation of "an illegitimate government". Polokhalo believes that such a coalition would not receive the support of Ukraine's citizens, even though it was supported by oligarchic business interests. Sergei Taran, Director of the Kyiv-based International Institute of Democracy, agrees with the prognosis, believing that the only danger in an Orange coalition will be that power in Ukraine will fall into the hands of a few people, the leaders of the majority fractions, and that the resulting political process will be closed and opaque.

Meanwhile, according to, Yulia Tymoshenko has called on analysts to stop discussing the possible creation of a coalition between Orange political forces and the Party of Regions, as "that is not a union of east and west, but really support for the biggest clan - the Donetsk clan, which today dreams of taking power."

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