Andijan - the Regional Impact

In today's issue of EDM, Roger N. McDermott writes that "heightened security and increased concerns among Uzbekistan's immediate neighbors mark the uneasy atmosphere produced by Tashkent's crackdown in Andijan on May 13. Kyrgyzstan's security agencies are particularly anxious to avoid any spillover of political violence across the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border. Tension is high on the border itself, while the impact on the region's security as a whole is beginning to emerge. Moscow has stepped up its security measures in the region by advancing its military basing policy in Kyrgyzstan. Though the situation within Uzbekistan itself has improved since the crisis erupted, denoted by the smother operation to regain control over the border town of Karasuu, once again the attention of both regional and external powers is focused on the future stability of this strategically vital area."

In considering the effect the events in Andijan have had for the security of the region as a whole, McDermott believes that

China and Russia, keen to advance their own economic and geopolitical interests in Central Asia, and to thwart American foreign policy goals in the region, appear ready to support Karimov's regime and those like his in Central Asia. Moscow and, to a lesser extent, China fear a possible "green" or Islamic revolution within Central Asia, and their political and security countermeasures will offer little comfort to those forces seeking to stimulate the development of democracy and respect for human rights in the region. In practical terms, Russian security thinking may be restricted to increasing the size of its own military footprint in Kyrgyzstan and providing more fluid and reliable intelligence to Bishkek.