Fiery Summer?

In the new issue of Chechen Society Newspaper, Ruslan Zhadayev speculates on the "Fiery Summer" of Shamil Basayev:

Renewal of military activities not only in Chechnya, but in the North Caucasus and Russia as a whole predicted by both Russian and Chechen militants.

Vladimir Kravchenko, Procurator of Chechnya, announced the news in early April of this year. According to him, Chechen militants are preparing to carry out a series of large-scale terrorist acts.

"The militants plan to advertise themselves," declared Kravchenko, - "and earn the monetary assistance which unfortunately they continue to receive. They have named the period 'Fiery Summer'." Almost immediately afterwards, the Federals announced that they won't permit a deterioration of the situation in Chechen Republic (which they hold under complete control).

Alu Alkhanov, Chechnya's head, likewise expressed faith that the militants won't be able to make the situation in the Republic worse this summer. "The militants have endured a heavy blow this year, their centralized system of command has been destroyed and famous field commanders killed."

Representatives of the other side reacted to the news about their preparation for the large-scale operation "Fiery Summer" a little later. In the beginning of May in an interview with "Radio Liberty",famous Chechen field commander Doku Umarov announced the fighters' intentions "to carry out military activities on the territory of the opponent."

According to him, only by Aslan Maskhadov's demand did they thus far restrict military operations to the territory of Chechnya. Now however "when the murder and kidnapping of peaceful Chechen citizens has attained not only a full-scale but demonstrative character," the decision was made to introduce broad-scale military operations on the territory of Russia.

Thus the separatist websites have posted several new orders of Abdul-Khalim Sadulayev - Aslan Maskhadov's successor to the post of President of Ichkeria.

According to site gazeta.ru, one of the orders announced the creation of a united "Caucasus Front" of the Ichkerian Military Force. The stated document claims that Ossetian, Ingush, Kabardino-Balkarian, Stavropolian, Karachaevo-Cherkessian, Adigean and Krasnodar 'sectors' of the Western Front of the the Ichkerian Military Force are included in the "Caucasus Front" along with commanding fronts within Chechnya proper.

What the leaders of the "Caucasus Front" specifically plan to do - that which would seize practically all of the Northern Caucasus Republics – remains as of yet unknown.
Nevertheless, there are enough factors to predict that if they don't spread their presence deep into Russia, they will at least do so throughout the Northern Caucasus.

Sadulayev directly declared that whilst Europe doesn't help them to start political discussions with Moscow, their plan will remain, "forcing the Kremlin to peace", and that blows will be dealt to the "Achilles Heel of the Kremlin inhabitants and their helpers." This is according to gazeta.ru with a link to separatist websites. What will come of these threats is left for time to tell.

Both the Russian military and the separatists have recently been disseminating information about their great achievements. They are both putting forward ciphers concerning the scale of losses and damage to the enemy which convey a sense of imminent victory.

It is true that in March and April the Russian soldiers and local "powers" carried out a whole row of successful "Special Operations." As a result Aslan Maskhadov was killed as well as several mid-echelon separatist commanders / "emirs". Practically all skirmishes in which "Djamaat Emirs" are destroyed have occurred in or around
Grozny. This in some measure affirms information about the concentration of militants earlier and possible large-scale actions on their part.

The past 2-3 weeks have been especially rich in victorious announcements from the side of the Russian military and local power structures. Announcements about the liquidation of militants are released almost every day. The "hand" of the Special Services overtakes them everywhere: in private homes, apartments, in the mountains, on the plains, in the forests and fields. "Are neutralized" the former VP of Ichkeria Vakha Arsanov ,dangerous international terrorist Danilbek Eskiyev, and the emirs of Shelkovsky, Gudermes and other regions and populated points. Several assumed suicide-terrorists.

However, even believing the reports of the Regional Operational Headquarters about almost daily liquidation of “a long time not engaging by businesses” Vakhi Arsanov or several "Djamaat emirs" - this can hardly signify a real victory for the Federals. After all, for the carrying out of diversionary-terroristic acts, the militants have no deep need of a "centralized command system" - the one which the soldiers and special operatives have been trying to destroy for all these years. The tactics of partisan warfare specifically differ from those of classical because various formations and groups act autonomously, striking at convenient times in
strategic places, proceeding from reasons of expediency in each concrete occasion and without seeking approval for their activities from "high command".

As the Federals, the militants did sharply increase their level of activation with the arrival of the spring-summer season - especially in the mountainous areas of the Republic. In the past 2-3 weeks active military clashes and skirmishes have occurred in Nozhai-Yurt, Shatoi, Achkhoi-Martanovsky and a series of other regions in Chechnya.

It's possible that this activation is linked to the promised "Fiery Summer" of Shamil Basayev, but one must not exclude the fact that this happens practically every year as soon as the leaves turn green. Many observers calculate that if Basayev did indeed intend to carry out a series of large-scale terrorist acts on the territory of Russia, then he will use all possible and impossible means in order to accomplish the feat.

As confirmation of this one may recall the year 2003. In spring of that year Shamil Basayev declared the commencement of an "operation of punishment" under the name "Boomerang". Afterwards a whole wave of terroristic acts swept across Chechnya and Russia.

On 12 May 2003 the load of an explosives-rigged "KAMAZ" blew up an administrative building in the village of Znamenskoe (59 killed, nearly 200 wounded). Three days later female suicide-bombers detonated themselves in a crowd which had gathered for holiday in the settlement of Iliskhan-Yurt (26 killed, nearly 150 wounded). In June, suicide-bombers blew up an autobus full of aviation-technical workers at the military hanger near Mozdok (16 killed, 20 wounded). Then there was the trolley explosion in Essentuki, and terror acts in Moscow - in Tushino and near the hotel "National".

At any rate, summer in Chechnya and maybe throughout the entire Northern Caucasus is expected to be if not "fiery" then at least pretty "hot". According to several sources, just in the past few weeks a few hundred young people left various regions of the Republic and went into the mountains.

Translated by Sarah SLY.