Monday, July 31, 2006


There will not be a full ceasefire until the proposed UN stabilization force is in place. Of the 48-hour suspension of air activity, Stratfor notes that
This does not halt ground operations. The end of air attacks is subject to Israel's interpretation of Hezbollah's actions. It is not clear at this moment that this is as significant as it might appear. It depends partly on Hezbollah's actions and partly on Israel's intentions. Forces that we think are moving forward are exempt from this cease-fire, and may or may not have to move without air support.
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